January 15, 2021 - 4:00 pm
January 15, 2021 - 5:00 pm
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The impact of climate change on Vietnamese cropland: Ricardian approach
Student: Lưu Bích Thu, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Trương Đăng Thụy
This paper uses data of temperature and precipitation to analyze the impact of climate change on the net revenue of farming households in Vietnam. For this research objective, this study applies the Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is regressed on climatic variables, water flow, soil types, and economic variables, and regional dummies. From the Ricardian regression results, the study calculates the marginal effects of temperature and rainfall of the dry season and wet season. The results indicate that these variables have a significant effect on the net crop revenue per hectare of farmers under Vietnam conditions. Particularly, lower precipitation and higher temperature result in loss of the net farm revenue per hectare in the dry season. I also found that the relationship between household net revenue and weather variables are nonlinear. Net revenue has a hill-shaped relationship with temperature in the dry season. This is explained that if the dry temperature is warmer, net revenue will increase, but dry temperatures can increase up to a point where further temperature increases will damage the crop. Additionally, the study demonstrates the change of net revenue impact of predicted climate scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. These scenarios predicted changes in climate in each district in Vietnam over time (MONRE). Net revenue projected
to decline about 5 million VND/ha and 3.7 million VND/ha due to increasing temperature and changing precipitation in 2050 and 2100, respectively.