Thesis Public Defense | VNP26 - Hà Trương Minh Hiếu

The effect of internal immigration on crime in Ho Chi Minh City

Student: Hà Trương Minh Hiếu, VNP-26

Supervisor: Dr. Zemzem Shigute & Dr. Phạm Khánh Nam

Abstract:

Ho Chi Minh city’s rapid urbanization and development have created a positive feedback loop. The more financially successful the city becomes, thanks to the internal migration from across the country, the more people are eager to move in and join the thriving economy.
However, this also created a Grey Rhino1 scenario where the constant influx of people is spiraling out of control. Out of many consequences that occur from an unnaturally and unplanned high concentration of population in a city that can be observed, crime rate is one of the most concerned and discussed topics. Europeans and Americans are no strangers to immigration phenomenal. Many robust observations of the link between crimes and immigration were documented. Although vary in results, most shared the conclusion that property crimes were the most positively impacted by heavy immigration. Yet, contradicting to findings of previous literature, this paper finds internal immigration has notably impacted all crimes in three criminal categories with little to no spatial impact. This is very surprising but somewhat predictable, given many flaws in the way official reports define internal immigration and the lack of transparency in how criminal data is recorded. The hard block of public access to data also contributes to the desolation of domestic research interest regarding this topic and leaves room for speculation why the population data census was closely guarded. Nonetheless, if the policy makers deem the official dataset trustworthy and
decide to act on it, the best course of action is to develop neighboring provinces and unpopulated districts to relieve the pressure from Ho Chi Minh city. While simultaneously, minimizing the frequent damage caused by natural disasters in the Center region will encourage more Center Vietnamese to hold their ground.

Keywords: Internal migration, Vietnam, Saigon, Crimes

JEL code: K3