Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Đoàn Trọng Nhân
2024-12-18 00:00 (Asia/Krasnoyarsk)
The influence of economic policy uncertainty on innovation: the moderating role of education
Student: Đoàn Trọng Nhân, VNP-29
Supervisor: Dr. Vũ Thị Hồng Nhung
Abstract:
Our investigation purposes to empirically theories and explore the influence of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on countries’ innovation performance as well as the contingency conditions of this relationship. The study employs longitudinal data from World bank secondary database to examine for a straight impression of EPU on nations’ innovation outcomes. In addition, we hypothesise the moderating effects of national education. In the contrary to previous studies, which believe innovation outputs is worse as the presence of EPU, our findings shows an inverted-U relationship between EPU and innovation outcomes. In fact, EPU encourages national innovation at a moderate level of EPU and reduce innovation performance as it exceeds the EPU turning point. Furthermore, we found that education triggers the invertedU relationship flatter, suggesting the mechanisms by which educational capacity protects and sustains innovation. This study contributes to the growing body of literature investigating the influence economic policy uncertainty on innovation in scope of country level. This research offers new insights into how uncertainty may drive innovation and expands our understanding of education’s role as a moderating factor.
Keywords: Economic policy uncertainty, innovation outputs, education, inverted U-shape relationship, Asia
JEL classification: D80, G18, O39

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Nguyễn Việt Ngân
2024-12-18 00:00
Determinants of financial inclusion in Vietnam: a comprehensive analysis
Student: Nguyễn Việt Ngân, VNP-29
Supervisor: Dr. Hồ Hoàng Anh & Dr. Ellisaios Papyrakis
Abstract:
This study focuses on analyzing the determinants of financial inclusion in Vietnam, emphasizing how socio-economic factors such as gender, age, education, marital status, income and migration influence individuals’ access to and usage of formal financial services. Financial inclusion is crucial for sustainable development, as it allows broader participation in the economy, particularly for vulnerable groups. However, despite Vietnam’s economic progress, financial inclusion levels remain below global and regional averages. The study seeks to address the role of socio-economic elements in influencing financial inclusion. Using econometric methods OLS and GLM, the research analyzes data from both demand and supply sides to evaluate financial inclusion index in Vietnam. The findings emphasizes the magnitude of education and income as primary drivers of financial access, while other factors show limited or no impact. Higher-income individuals and married households are more likely to access financial services, while lower-income groups, especially in rural areas, face barriers despite
improvements in service availability. These results suggest that policy interventions are needed to address both supply-side challenges, like service availability, and demand-side constraints, such as socio-economic disparities, to improve financial inclusion. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to reduce socio-economic inequalities and enhance access to financial services in Vietnam.
Keywords: Financial inclusion; socio-economic factors; behavioral economics; demand-supply side; regional disparities; Vietnam

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Ngô Minh Hiếu
2024-12-18 00:00
Digital disparity: insights from the informal economy perspective
Student: Ngô Minh Hiếu, VNP-29
Supervisor: Dr. Nguyễn Quang
Abstract:
The primary objective of this study is to explore the varied effects of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on the size of the informal economy, considering different levels of development, socio-geographic contexts, and sectors. Using three distinct datasets that capture various dimensions of the informal economy and four ICT indicators spanning the period from 2000 to 2015, the study suggests that ICTs contribute to a reduction in the size of the informal economy. However, this impact is not uniform across all contexts. First, ICTs have a greater effect on reducing the relative size of the informal economy in middle- and high-income countries than in low-income countries. Interestingly, the influence of ICTs is more pronounced in middle-income countries than in high-income ones. Second, the findings suggest that increased ICT adoption, as indicated by internet and mobile phone usage, reduces the rate of informal employment more rapidly in urban areas than in rural ones. Lastly, ICTs are associated with a more significant decline in informal employment in nonagricultural sectors than in agriculture. These findings imply that information technology can be an effective tool for governments seeking to formalize the informal sector, particularly in middle-income countries, urban areas, and non-agricultural sectors.
Keywords: Informal economy; Shadow economy; Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs); Digital divide; Digital disparity
JEL Classification: D63, E26, J46, L86, O17

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Lâm Nguyễn Đỗ Khoa
2025-01-16 00:00
Relationship between push and pull factors and foreign portfolio investment in Vietnam
Student: Lâm Nguyễn Đỗ Khoa, VNP-29
Supervisor: Dr. Vũ Việt Quảng
Abstract:
This study explores the factors influencing Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) in Vietnam’s stock market, focusing on the interaction between macroeconomic factors and global financial conditions framed within the push-pull theory. Using monthly data from 2009 to 2024, the research applies the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to examine short- and long-term relationships, considering asymmetric effects on FPI. The results show that global economic conditions significantly drive FPI inflows, while the domestic factors have mixed effects. The study also highlights short-term impacts, such as those from the COVID-19 pandemic and ETF restructuring. These findings provide useful insights for policymakers and investors and contributes to the literature by examining the asymmetric effects of
economic variables on FPI, offering a solid framework for analyzing financial markets in emerging economies.
Keywords: Foreign Portfolio Investment, Stock Market, Portfolio Balance Framework, NARDL, Macroeconomics.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Dương Thiện Trang Thanh
2025-01-16 00:00
Material flow analysis of fossil fuel in ASEAN during the period 1980-2024
Student: Dương Thiện Trang Thanh, VNP-29
Supervisor: Assoc.Prof.Dr. Phạm Khánh Nam
Abstract:
Ten ASEAN countries are setting targets of net-zero or carbon neutrality by 2050, but their strong commitments are not apparent in COP28. Hence, my research aims to investigate material (fossil fuel) evolution and efficiency, which are critical determinants for sustainable economic development through material flow analysis (MFA) with a set of key indicators such as domestic extraction, raw material equivalent of imports and exports, and material footprint. Further, deploying panel data with the period of 1980 – 2024 and fixed effect panel regression application, I would like to examine relationship between economic growth and environmental quality based on idea of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The EKC is a traditional approach that captures a relationship between income growth and environmental quality mainly focusing measures of pollutions. In my scope of research, I validate EKC using material footprint that is alternative measure of environmental degradation. My study would contribute to growing literature of ASEAN circular economy (CE) that is considered as a novel concept in this region. Further, importance of MFA accounting framework is also highlighted in this research as a supportive data-based tool to track CE progress.
My results confirm a presence of inverted U-shaped between GDP per capita and raw material consumption per capita at total level. However, when specifically analyzing by income group, the analysis presents a mixture result of EKC. While inverted U-shaped between economic growth and material footprint exists in high income countries (Singapore, Brunei Darussalam) and upper-middle income nations (Thailand, Malaysia), lower-middle income countries do not show significant progress of dematerialization, exhibiting positive linear relationship between GDP and material footprint in these nations. Coupling between economic development and footprint of fossil fuel can reflect current ASEAN energy transition journey that encounters multiple overlapping constraints. While AMS are attempting to accelerate the transition towards renewable energy to reduce emission and mitigate impact of climate change, the usage of fossil fuel, especially coal, oil, and natural gas are still unavoidable for economic and industrial development. The EKC findings would emphasize that conflicting priorities to enable economic growth and improvement of environmental quality is still ASEAN’s dilemma.
Keywords: material flow analysis, material footprint, EKC hypothesis, circular economy, dematerialization, fossil fuel

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Ưng Triệu Gia Bảo
2025-01-16 00:00
Globalization on global wealth inequality: An econometric perspective
Student: Ưng Triệu Gia Bảo, VNP-29
Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Lorenzo Pellegrini & Prof.Dr. Nguyễn Trọng Hoài
Abstract:
This paper aims to investigate the complex relationship between globalization and wealth inequality between nations, using a comprehensive dataset spanning from 2000 to 2022, sourced from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization.
By quantified wealth inequality through Theil Index, while globalization is measured using an aggregate index constructed via Principal Component Analysis (PCA), capturing dimensions such as trade openness, FDI inflows, number of trade agreements, and technological integration. Employing robust econometrics models-Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fixed Effects (FE), Random Effects (RE), and System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM)-this study provides an in-depth analysis of the impact of globalization on wealth distribution across countries. The results provide not an insight on a global scale but also divided into two types of markets, contributing to the academic discourse of global wealth inequality, while offering insights that could inform policies aimed at fostering a more equitable and just global economic system.
Keywords: Globalization; PCA; wealth inequality, Theil Index, GMM.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Phạm Đặng Phương Uyển
2025-02-20 00:00
Analyzing the Impact of Economic Factors on Divorce in Vietnam from 2010 to 2022
Student: Phạm Đặng Phương Uyển, VNP-29
Supervisor: Dr. Vũ Hải Anh
Abstract:
This study explores how unemployment affects the divorce rate in Vietnam, using data from 63 provinces and cities from 2010 to 2022. The findings show that unemployment creates both financial and psychological stress, leading to marital instability. Its impact is not only immediate butcontinues over time. In particular, unemployment from two years prior (lag2) continues to have a significant influence on the current divorce rate. The study also reveals gender differences in how unemployment affects marriage. When the husband becomes unemployed, the divorce rate rises due to the loss of the household’s main source of income. However, when the wife is unemployed, marriages tend to last longer, possibly due to financial dependence or societal norms. In addition to unemployment, other factors such as income inequality, poverty, crime rates, and the proportion of elderly people also play a role in divorce rates. These findings emphasize the importance of job support programs and social policies to lessen the negative impact of unemployment on marriage and family stability.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP28 - Đoàn Thị Ngọc Huệ
2025-02-20 00:00
The impact of income diversification on liquidity risk of Vietnamese commercial banks
Student: Đoàn Thị Ngọc Huệ, VNP-28
Supervisor: Dr. Nguyễn Thị Thùy Linh
Abstract:
The study analyzes and evaluates the impacts of income diversification on the liquidity risk of Vietnamese commercial banks, using data from 27 commercial banks spanning from 2005 to 2023. Income diversification is measured by the HerfindahlHirschman Index (HHI) and the ratio of non-interest income to total operational income (SHNON). The liquidity risk of the banks is assessed using the financing gap (FGAP) and the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR). Furthermore, this study also investigates the impact of the banks’ other activities (non-interest earnings), as well as macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth, changes in money supply, and the inflation rate on liquidity risk. The results show that income diversity has a negative and significantly effect on bank liquidity risk. An increase in income diversity leads to a decrease in liquidity risk. Furthermore, ETA, EFD, SIZE and ROE positively correlate with liquidity risk, although NLP does not influence
liquidity risk. Regarding macroeconomic considerations, inflation rate negative influences liquidity risk. However, GDPG and M2C do not affect banks’ liquidity risk.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Đỗ Như Nam
2025-02-20 00:00
Productivity-based capital allocation efficiency: Empirical evidence from households in Vietnam
Student: Đỗ Như Nam, VNP-29
Supervisor: Dr. Võ Hồng Đức
Abstract:
The research studies the household production model and credit program efficiencies in Vietnam. We extend prior empirical studies on Vietnam’s financial inclusion by focusing on credit constraint aspects through examining potential credit misallocation with respect to household productivity. We hypothesize that the ineffective allocation of credit results in lowered levels and reduced welfare impacts of financial inclusion, hence widening the inequality gap through production loss. Our methodology entails measuring households’ TFP through robust estimation of the household production function, specified in trans-log terms, then applying fitted Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to a Heckman’s two-step sample-selection modeling framework. The empirical strategy serves to understand households TFPs’ impact on credit program participation and amount granted, or, in other words, credit elasticities to TFPs. We find that the studied credit programs exhibit positive efficiencies, albeit reveal certain mistargeting challenges that could be enhanced in the screening and allocation process. The study aims to contribute a new perspective on barriers to financial inclusion in Vietnam, by focusing on productivity’s potential impact on credit, which in turn facilitates production and welfare.
JEL Classification: D13, D24, D61
Keywords: financial inclusion, capital allocation, household production, total factor productivity, sustainable development.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Võ Hoàng Long
2025-02-28 00:00
Son preference, fertility choices, and labor market segmentation in Vietnam
Student: Võ Hoàng Long, VNP-29
Supervisor: Dr. Hồ Hoàng Anh
Abstract:
This study investigates the interplay between son preference, fertility choices, and labor market segmentation in Vietnam using instrumental variable probit (IV-Probit) model on Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) data from 2010 to 2020. The initial findings reveal that son preference contribute to lower fertility, influenced by and malepreferring stopping rules and potential sex selection trends during modernization. Using son preference as an instrument for fertility, we uncover that having fewer children increases the likelihood of labor force participation, particularly for women. It also shifts individuals away from agriculture and manufacturing toward the service sector. While women with fewer children exhibit increased opportunities in manufacturing compared to men, lower fertility also shifts them away from informal, unskilled employment or multi-job engagement, reflecting improved access to higher-quality job opportunities. These patterns align with the Feminization U Hypothesis and Unified Growth Theory, suggesting that Vietnam’s economic and demographic transitions significantly shape labor market outcomes. Policies should focus on reducing gender biases, stricter enforcement against prenatal sex selection to sustain fertility rate that avoid shrinking workforce and human capital stock. Solutions should be established for mitigating the trade-offs between childbearing and career advancement, particularly for GDP-dominant sectors.
Keywords: Vietnam, labor supply, labor segmentation, son preferences, fertility decline, differential stopping rules

JEL Classification: J01, J13, J22

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Lê Ngọc Ánh
2025-02-28 00:00
The green path: FDI’s Influence on Asia’s sustainable economic growth
Student: Lê Ngọc Ánh, VNP-29
Supervisor: Prof. Almas Heshmati
Abstract:
This study examines the dual impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on sustainable economic growth in Asia, focusing on its effects on Green GDP, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the Environmental Performance Index (EPI). Using data from 38 Asian countries spanning 1999 to 2022 and employing a two-step GMM regression analysis, the findings reveal that while FDI positively influences Green GDP growth, it concurrently exacerbates GHG emissions and reduces EPI scores. These results underscore the paradoxical role of FDI in
fostering economic growth while posing environmental challenges. The study highlights the importance of robust environmental policies, investment in green technologies, and regional cooperation to align FDI with sustainability goals. It also emphasizes the need for a balanced
approach to leverage FDI’s economic benefits without compromising environmental integrity. This research contributes to the literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of FDI’s environmental and economic implications in the Asian context, offering policy recommendations for achieving sustainable development.

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Green Economy, Sustainable Economic Growth

JEL Classification: F2, F21, O11, O44, O53,Q56

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Lê Quang Đông Quân
2025-02-28 00:00
The impact of internet use on financial inclusion among Vietnam’s rural households
Student: Lê Quang Đông Quân, VNP-29
Supervisor: Dr. Lê Văn Chơn
Abstract:
This thesis analyzes the relationship between internet usage and financial inclusion among rural households in Vietnam using household-level data from the 2018 Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS), encompassing over 25,300 households. A negative binomial model, as well as a supplement ordinal probit model, is employed to demonstrate that internet use significantly boosts the financial inclusion index of rural households. To be more specific, households that use internet are likely to use more financial products, and have the higher probability of being in the High Financial Inclusion category. As internet accessibility increases, the likelihood of households achieving higher levels of financial inclusion improves, highlighting the important role of internet access in enabling access to financial products and services. Given that internet penetration is still largely concentrated in urban areas, expanding its reach to rural regions is essential for promoting inclusive growth and improving the welfare of disadvantaged communities. The results highlight the need for making appropriate policies to develop internet infrastructure and diffusion in rural areas, as well as to maximize the economic benefits of internet adoption for rural households. These measures would help optimize the economic advantages of internet use for rural households, reflect the effort of financial institutions to bring-in underprivileged people to the mainstream financial system, and align with the Goverment’s objective of achieving inclusive growth.
Keywords: Financial Inclusion, Internet use, Rural households, Vietnam
JLT Classification: D14, L86, R51

Thesis Public Defense | VNP28 - Nguyễn Chí Nhân
2025-06-10 00:00
Regulations and bank performance: basel II in Vietnam
Student: Nguyễn Chí Nhân, VNP-28
Supervisor: Dr. Hồ Hoàng Anh
Abstract:
This study investigates the impact of Basel II implementation on the performance of Vietnamese commercial banks from 2010 to 2024. Using a panel dataset constructed from financial statements, the research applies Random Effects Models (REM) to examine the effects of Basel II adoption on three key indicators: return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and net interest margin (NIM). Bank-specific variables-total assets, equity capital, non-performing loans, loan loss provisions, customer loans, and short-term loans are included, along with macroeconomic controls such as GDP growth and inflation.
The empirical results indicate that Basel II adoption positively affects ROA and ROE, suggesting that strengthened capital adequacy and risk-based supervision enhance profitability and asset utilization. The effect on NIM is less consistent, reflecting a longer adjustment period for core lending profitability under stricter regulatory requirements. Non-performing loans and provisioning expenses exhibit significant negative impacts on bank performance, highlighting the critical role of asset quality. Additionally, inflation shows a positive relationship with profitability, likely due to faster lending rate adjustments compared to funding costs.
Overall, the findings emphasize that Basel II enhances long-term efficiency and financial stability but imposes short-term compliance challenges. The study provides practical insights for policymakers and bank managers to improve resilience and align with international banking standards.
Keywords: Basel II; Bank performance; Vietnamese commercial banks; ROA; ROE; NIM

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Phạm Quỳnh Như
2025-12-04 00:00
Occupation and fertility: Evidence from fishing communities in Vietnam
Student: Phạm Quỳnh Như, VNP-30
Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Irene van Staveren & Dr. Đặng Đình Thắng
Abstract:
Fishing communities in Vietnam face many difficulties due to their unstable livelihood. To deal with that, they take advantage of employing marine resources using family labors. Therefore, large family size and son preference are prevalent social norms in this occupational group. This study measures the impact of families engaging in the fishing sector on fertility behaviors using the instrumental variable approach. The study shows that as the distance from commune to nearest coastline reduces, the probability of household being in fisheries rises, and treated fishing families also have higher fertility than families living with other occupations. The mechanisms not only lie in economic factors, but also in social factors. The patriarchal system, an institution embedded in both factors, plays an important role. Under the lens of capability approach, effective policies should increase individual well-being, especially for women, by addressing not only in income and assets, but also in challenging institutions limiting individual autonomy and freedom to live the life of their choice.
Keywords: Fishing, fertility, Vietnam, gendered norms, patriarchal system, son preference, economic factors, social factors, Capability approach

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Đinh Hùng Danh
2025-12-04 00:00
Trade and the environment: global evidence on the impacts of export quality, diversification, and trade margins (2002–2014)
Student: Đinh Hùng Danh, VNP-29
Supervisor: Dr. Nguyễn Quang
Abstract:
As global trade integration accelerates, concerns over its environmental consequences have intensified. This study examines how export characteristics, specifically export quality, diversification, and extensive versus intensive margins, which affect greenhouse gas emissions across key economic sectors including agriculture, land use, waste, buildings, construction, transport, electricity, and energy production. Using panel data spanning 2002–2014 for over 100 countries and employing multiple econometric specifications, we find that higher export quality and greater trade diversification are associated with increased emissions, particularly in energy, transport, and industrial sectors. This relationship reflects the energy-intensive nature of high-quality production processes and the environmental costs associated with broader trade expansion. Conversely, export concentration (lower diversification) is linked to reduced emissions, suggesting that sectoral specialization may mitigate pollution intensity. Among the trade dimensions examined, export extensive margins exhibit the weakest impact on emissions, indicating that expanding market reach through new products or destinations imposes lower environmental costs compared to intensifying existing trade relationships or upgrading export quality.
Our results have important policy implications for achieving sustainable trade growth. Countries seeking to reduce their export carbon footprint should pursue “smart specialization” by concentrating export efforts in sectors where they possess comparative advantage, rather than diversifying across unrelated industries. Additionally, policymakers should prioritize geographic market expansion and within-sector product innovation, as these strategies generate lower environmental costs compared to broad sectoral diversification. This study contributes to the growing literature on trade-environment linkages by providing empirical evidence on the differential environmental impacts of various trade strategies, offering valuable insights for designing sustainable trade policies that reconcile economic competitiveness with environmental preservation.
Keywords: Greenhouse gas emissions, Export quality, Export Diversification, Export extensive margin, Export intensive margin.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Phạm Quốc Học
2025-12-04 00:00
Carbon pricing and agriculture in Vietnam: a taxing trade-off
Student: Phạm Quốc Học, VNP-30
Supervisor: Dr. Nguyễn Quang
Abstract:
This study evaluates the impacts of carbon pricing on Vietnam’s agricultural sector through a dual-level analytical framework combining a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model at the macro level and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Levinsohn–Petrin (LP) estimations at the household level. The CGE results indicate that a marginal carbon price experiment implemented as a one percentage point increase in the ad-valorem tax on fossil-fuel extraction leads to an approximately 0.62% reduction in CO₂ emissions (≈ -1.806 MtCO₂ per year), accompanied by modest improvements in nitrogen and phosphorus boundaries. However, the associated changes in land use expansion (+0.0195%) and freshwater use (+0.0069%) are extremely small in magnitude and should be interpreted only as marginal directional responses rather than economically meaningful impacts. At the micro level, both the OLS and LP estimations show that agricultural land is the most influential input, with β = 0.61, indicating a statistical association such that a 1% increase in cultivated land is associated with roughly a 0.61% increase in farm income. Water (β = 0.029) also contributes positively, while labor, capital, and energy input remain statistically insignificant. Integrating both sets of findings reveals that carbon pricing affects households indirectly via land and water channels, influencing rural welfare. The study concludes that carbon pricing should be integrated with land and water management policies to achieve the dual objectives of emission reduction and sustainable rural livelihoods.
Keywords: carbon pricing, CGE model, Levinsohn–Petrin, agriculture, Vietnam.
JEL Classification: Q54, Q15.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Hồ Ngọc Linh
2025-12-11 00:00
The impact of ESG practices on GRDP growth in Vietnam at the provincial level
Student: Hồ Ngọc Linh, VNP-30
Supervisor: Dr. Đặng Lê Hoa
Abstract:
Vietnam’s economy is growing fast and the regional disparity is large. This study investigates the impact of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) practices on economic growth, measured by the growth in Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita across Vietnamese provinces. This study is conducted using a panel dataset analysis of 63 Vietnamese provinces over the period 2019-2023. The study applies Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to construct composite ESG indices from multiple standardized indicators and employs fixed-effects panel regressions to estimate their effects on economic performance.
The empirical findings reveal that the three ESG pillars exert heterogeneous and asymmetrical impacts on economic growth. The Social pillar shows a strong, positive, and statistically significant effect on GRDP, with evidence of increasing returns. it indicates improvements in health, education, and social protection generate compounding economic gains. The Environmental pillar exhibits a small negative short-run effect. It suggests that provinces may face transitional adjustment costs associated with pollution control, regulatory compliance, or resource-management efforts. Meanwhile, the Governance pillar is statistically insignificant in the short term, consistent with the slow-moving nature of institutional reforms and their predominantly long-term influence. The results highlight that economic growth alone does not ensure sustainable development. To sustain long-term growth, provincial governments should strategically reinvest GRDP gains into social infrastructure, environmental protection, and institutional capacity. Embedding ESG principles into provincial planning provides a viable pathway toward narrowing regional disparities and promoting inclusive, sustainable transformation across Vietnam.
Keywords: ESG practices, GRDP per capita growth, panel data analysis, Vietnamese provinces
JEL Classification Codes: C23, F43, O11, O44, Q56

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Ngô Đức Duy
2025-12-11 00:00
Migrant transfers and on-farm investment under climate stress
Student: Ngô Đức Duy, VNP-29
Supervisor: Dr. Binyam Demena & Dr. Hồ Quốc Thông
Abstract:
Rural households in Vietnam’s Central and Central Highlands provinces face frequent climate hazards that disrupt timely purchases of seeds, fertilizer, land preparation, irrigation, and hired labor. Meanwhile, rural-urban and international migration generate remittance inflows, which may ease short-term liquidity constraints. This study examines whether remittances increase farm input spending in normal years, whether climate shocks reduce such spending, and whether remittances offset these reductions. The analysis uses three waves of the Thailand-Vietnam Socio-Economic Panel (2013, 2016, and 2017) for Ha Tinh, Thua Thien Hue, and Dak Lak. The models use village-by-year leave-one-out averages of other households’ remittances as a network shifter and include household fixed effects to control for time-invariant differences. Results show that remittances increase input spending, while climate-related losses reduce it. The marginal benefit of remittances declines as losses increase. These findings remain robust after controlling for province-by-year shocks and alternative instrument specifications. By linking farm input expenditure to liquidity, risk, and productivity, this study offers policy-relevant evidence for climate-vulnerable, migration-active regions. Eventually, the findings suggest that reducing barriers to money transfers and providing timely, short-term liquidity during input periods can enhance the productive use of remittances and help maintain their role as insurance.
Keywords: Rural migration; remittances; climate shocks; agriculture; farming expenditure; informal insurance; TVSEP; NELM; leave-one-out.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Huỳnh Thị Kiều Trinh
2025-12-11 00:00
The gender gap in agricultural credit access and its impact on rice productivity
Student: Huỳnh Thị Kiều Trinh, VNP-29
Supervisor: Dr. Trương Đăng Thụy
Abstract:
Vietnam is a prominent player in global agricultural exports, with rice being one of its most significant commodities. In recent years, the country has experienced robust growth in rice exports, contributing approximately 12.5% to the global market and ranking just behind India and Thailand. Despite strong export performance, challenges related to production efficiency remain. This study examines the role of access to credit in shaping rice production outcomes, utilizing data from the 2022 Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS). By employing Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) and quantile regression (QR) techniques, the research investigates how credit constraints, household socio-demographic characteristics, and gender differences influence productivity and Technical Efficiency (TE). The findings indicate heterogeneous effects of credit across households, with more pronounced impacts among higher-productivity farmers, while its direct effect on TE is limited. Gender differences in credit access and production outcomes are highlighted, providing important insights and policy implications for promoting equitable financial access and sustainable agricultural development.
Keywords: Rice production efficiency, Gender disparities, Credit constraints, Vietnam
JEL classification: Q12, J16, D24

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Lê Thị Mỹ Quỳnh
2026-01-09 00:00
Impact of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) policy on area of plastic dump site in Indonesia
Student: Lê Thị Mỹ Quỳnh, VNP-30
Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Lorenzo Pellegrini & Dr. Trương Đăng Thụy
Abstract:
Plastics are deeply embedded in modern economies due to their versatility, durability, and low cost, yet they also cause long-term environmental damages, which require environmental policies to counter this issue. This thesis investigates the correlation between Indonesia’s Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) policy and the dynamics of plastic dump sites across 34 provinces from 2017 to 2021. Leveraging satellite‑derived data, from Global Plastic Watch (GPW) and provincial macro‑economic indicators the research adopts a fixed‑effects regression model to evaluate changes in plastic dump-site area and its growth rate before and after the enactment of EPR in a developing country context – Indonesia. The findings indicate that the introduction of EPR is associated with a statistically significant reduction in the expansion of plastic dump sites, even after controlling for GDP, population, industrial activity, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Robustness checks incorporating shocks in plastic waste trade balance and industrial-FDI interaction terms reveal that after EPR implementation, the positive early-stage change in environmental performances are most pronounced in provinces with higher industrial concentration and greater FDI inflows, suggesting capacity-dependent compliance and technology transfer mechanisms. While Indonesia’s EPR remains voluntary, the results imply that it is associated with corporate behavior and environmental outcomes. This study provides early empirical evidence on the presence of EPR in a developing-country context could contribute to better environment and highlights the importance of industrial structure and international investment in enabling circular-economy transitions.
Key words: Extended producer responsibility, Environmental policy, Eco-design, Plastic waste, Plastic dump site

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Trương Trần Minh Thư
2026-01-09 00:00
Corruption, shadow economy and economic growth: investigating in emerging countries
Student: Trương Trần Minh Thư, VNP-30
Supervisor: Assoc.Prof.Dr. Võ Tất Thắng
Abstract:
The relationship between corruption, the size of the shadow economy, and economic growth is a complex and controversial topic, especially in the context of developing countries that are
characterized by weak institutions and bureaucratic burdens. The study uses panel data of 40 developing countries in the period from 2009 to 2020 to investigate the relationships among corruption, shadow economy and economic growth. The study applies different regression methods, from the basic Pooled OLS regression method to 2SLS and IV-GMM methods incorporating respective instrumental variables and jack-knifed method to address endogeneity. The results reflected a relationship between corruption and the shadow economy as corruption positively affects the expansion of the shadow economy and negatively impact on economic growth. The study also pointed out the impact of the shadow economy on increasing corruption and hindering economic development in developing countries but still should further investigation due to certain limitations. According to the above empirical results, a number of policy proposals were developed to emphasize the importance of governance quality, optimization intermediary channels to narrow the size of underground economic and minimize the negative impacts of corruption on economic development.
Keywords: shadow economy, corruption, economic growth, IV-GMM
JEL classification: C26, D73, O17, O47

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Nguyễn Thị Bích Hiền
2026-01-21 00:00
Migration impact on household micronutrient vulnerability: a VEP analysis in Vietnam
Student: Nguyễn Thị Bích Hiền, VNP-30
Supervisor: Assoc.Prof.Dr. Võ Tất Thắng
Abstract:
Migration affects millions of Vietnamese households, yet its impact on nutritional vulnerability remains poorly understood. While existing research focuses primarily on macronutrients and current nutritional status, comprehensive assessment of micronutrient vulnerability and future risk remains limited. This study addresses this gap by examining how different migration types affect household nutritional vulnerability across 42 essential nutrients. Using panel data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey 2016-2018 covering 4,071 households, we apply the Vulnerability as Expected Poverty method with reference lines to measure the probability of future nutritional deficiency. We employ fixed effects models to control for unobserved household heterogeneity and instrumental variable approaches using historical migration networks to address endogeneity concerns. The analysis reveals distinct differentiated impacts depending on migration duration and employment status. Short-term non-labor migration significantly increases vulnerability for macronutrients and key micronutrients, with effects ranging from 13 to 29 percentage points. In contrast, long-term labor migration reduces vulnerability for minerals including iron, calcium, potassium, magnesium and B vitamins by 6 to 16 percentage points. Heterogeneity analysis shows that poor households, the Mekong River Delta region, and households with female migrants face greater vulnerability. These findings suggest the need for differentiated policy interventions targeting specific migration types and vulnerable population groups to improve nutritional security.

Keywords: Migration, Vulnerability as Expected Poverty, Nutritional Vulnerability, Micronutrients, Food Security, Vietnam
JEL Classification: O15, I12, I15, J61, Q18

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Vũ Đức Ngọc Thiện
2026-01-21 00:00
Climate change, emissions trading systems, and women’s political empowerment: Evidence from a cross-country analysis
Student: Vũ Đức Ngọc Thiện, VNP-30
Supervisor: Assoc.Prof.Dr. Phạm Khánh Nam
Abstract:
Market-based environmental policy instruments have gained increasing prominence in global climate change mitigation efforts, yet their effectiveness may depend on broader institutional and social conditions. This study examines the environmental impacts of emissions trading systems (ETS) and the role of women’s political empowerment in shaping their effectiveness. Using a panel of 84 countries over the period 2000 – 2023, the analysis combines two-way fixed effects and a staggered difference-in-differences framework to evaluate the direct and interactive effects of ETS adoption and women’s political empowerment on national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The empirical results indicate that ETS adoption is associated with statistically significant reductions in per capita GHG emissions, supporting the effectiveness of market-based instruments in climate mitigation. In addition, higher levels of women’s political empowerment are correlated with lower emissions, measured in carbon dioxide equivalent terms. Robustness checks and diagnostic tests confirm the stability of these findings. Importantly, the study finds that women’s political empowerment moderates the effectiveness of ETS, with stronger emission-reducing effects observed in countries where women’s political influence is relatively high. Mechanism analyses suggest that this moderating role operates partly through better environmental governance capacity and higher female labor force participation, both of which are associated with improved environmental
outcomes. Furthermore, disaggregated analyses by gas type reveal that the effects of ETS and women’s empowerment are most pronounced for carbon dioxide emissions, while impacts on methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases are more limited. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of integrating market-based environmental policies with inclusive political institutions, suggesting that gender-inclusive governance may enhance the effectiveness of climate policy instruments.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Nguyễn Khôi Nguyên
2026-01-21 00:00
The impact of feed-in tariff on green total factor productivity: cross-country empirical evidence
Student: Nguyễn Khôi Nguyên, VNP-30
Supervisor: Prof.Dr. Lorenzo Pellergrini & Assoc.Prof.Dr. Phạm Khánh Nam
Abstract:
An unprecedented rate of global warming poses rising threats to economies, despite intensive climate actions taken. As a market-pull instrument, the feed-in tariff (FIT) is crucial for the renewable energy transition and carbon mitigation. Still, the programme cannot exert consistent influences on economic outcomes. Building on the directional distance function, the global Malmquist-Luenberger indicator (MLI) provides a non-parametric measure of green total factor productivity (GTFP), decomposed into technological change (TECH) and efficiency change (TECCH). It also credits both desirable and undesirable outputs, serving as an environmentally sensitive alternative to the Solow residual. This paper examines the effect of FIT on GTFP growth and its components across 56 countries from 1990 to 2019. Using temporal and spatial instruments, the continuous updating estimator in the generalised method of moments is adopted to address endogenous treatment effects. The specification also uses Newey-West standard errors to account for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity across residuals. Empirically, FIT exerts higher annualised growth rates in GTFP and TECCH for implementing parties, except for TECH. Similar patterns are observed among OECD members, in contrast to the offsetting influences of MLI components in non-OECD counterparts. Moreover, overgenerous rates fail to translate into proportionate green performance, whereas FIT exhibits more pronounced gains for maturing renewable technologies. Hence, a combination of country-tailored policies, technology-specific incentives, and augmenting R&D investments is indispensable to complement FIT. This generates simultaneous stimuli for technical dissemination and shifts of the production frontier. Remuneration degression should also be imposed to maximise the baseline advantages of diffusion-driven GTFP growth.
Keywords: Feed-in tariffs; Malmquist-Luenberger productivity indicator; green total factor productivity; technological progress; efficiency improvement.
JEL codes: Q48, D24, O33, O47, C14, C26, H23

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Ngô Tấn Hưng
2026-02-02 00:00
Revisit the “Resource Curse” in Vietnam
Student: Ngô Tấn Hưng, VNP-30
Supervisor: Dr. John Cruzatti Constantine & Dr. Hồ Hoàng-Anh
Abstract:
This study examines the causal impact of mineral deposit discoveries on local economic development in Vietnam during the period 1992-2000. Using district-level nighttime light data as a proxy for economic activity, the study applies a multi-period difference-in-differences framework following Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) to identify the causal effect of mineral discoveries on local economies. This approach allows for heterogeneous treatment effects across cohorts and over time, while mitigating bias arising from invalid comparisons inherent in conventional two-way fixed effects models. The results show that districts with mineral discoveries differ substantially in geographic and natural conditions from those without discoveries. When these factors are not controlled for, naïve estimates suggest the presence of a local “resource curse”. However, after conditioning on covariates and allowing treatment effects to vary over time, the analysis finds no evidence of a uniform average effect of mineral discoveries on short-run local economic growth. Instead, the estimated effects are heterogeneous. Positive impacts are observed mainly in districts that experienced early discoveries, whereas districts with later discoveries show no statistically significant effects. Overall, the study provides empirical evidence that natural resource discoveries do not inevitably lead to either a resource curse or an economic boom at the local level. The findings underscore the central role of spatial heterogeneity and geographic context in assessing the economic consequences of natural resource discoveries.
JEL Classification: Q32, Q33
Keywords: resources curse, nighttime light, subnation, Vietnam, stagged DID

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Lê Thị Quỳnh Nga
2026-02-02 00:00
Exploring the impact of labor market conditions on business development in Vietnam: a provincial level analysis
Student: Lê Thị Quỳnh Nga, VNP-30
Supervisor: Prof. Almas Heshmati
Abstract:
Labor market conditions (LMC) play a crucial role in business development (BD) and provincial income generation, yet their combined interaction at the provincial level remains insufficiently examined in Vietnam. This thesis investigates how LMC are associated with BD and provincial income across 63 provinces during 2018–2023. Using provincial data from the Vietnam General Statistics Office (GSO) and the Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI), the study applies a simultaneous equation framework estimated by Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) method to account for the interdependence between enterprise density and gross regional domestic product (GRDP) per capita. The findings indicate that LMC, together with institutional and provincial economic indicators (PEI), are closely related to enterprise activity and income differences across provinces. A nonlinear and bidirectional relationship is observed between BD and GRDP per capita, with diminishing marginal effects at higher levels of enterprise density and income. Significant regional disparities is likely to persist, as economic activity is concentrated in a small group of advantaged provinces while less-developed regions lag behind. These results highlight the importance of balanced and inclusive regional planning, improved labor allocation, streamlined administrative procedures, and stronger institutional quality to support sustainable BD and reduced provincial development gaps in Vietnam.
Keywords: Business development; Labor market conditions; Provincial economic indicators; Provincial Competitiveness Index; GRDP per capita; Vietnamese provinces
JEL Classification Codes: J21; J24; L26; R11; C33

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Phạm Nam Phương
2026-02-24 00:00
Leverage and performance under sustainability lens: sectoral evidence from Vietnam
Student: Phạm Nam Phương, VNP-30
Supervisor: Dr. Nguyễn Thị Tuyết Nhung
Abstract:
As Vietnamese firms expand and leverage becomes an increasingly common tool to finance growth, the question of when debt enhances performance—and when it undermines it—has become more critical than ever. This thesis examines how financial leverage affects firm performance in Vietnam and whether this relationship differs across industries classified by eligibility under the EU Taxonomy framework. Using an unbalanced panel of non-financial firms listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange and the Hanoi Stock Exchange from 2012 to 2023, the study applies firm fixed-effects panel regressions with year controls and robust standard errors to account for unobserved heterogeneity. The findings show that financial leverage has a statistically significant negative impact on firm performance, confirming that excessive reliance on debt constrains operational efficiency in an emerging market context. While industry eligibility is explored as a potential moderating factor, the results indicate that the adverse performance effects of leverage remain broadly similar across eligible and non-eligible industries, with no robust evidence of systematic
heterogeneity. These findings suggest that eligibility-based industry classification is not statistically significant in the fixed-effects specification. By integrating eligibility into the analysis of leverage and performance, this study provides insights for managers, investors, and policymakers seeking to balance growth, financial stability, and sustainable development in Vietnam.
JEL Classification: G30, G32, O16, Q56
Keywords: Capital structure, financial leverage, firm performance, EU Taxonomy, Fixed-effects panel regression model

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Nguyễn Thảo My
2026-02-24 00:00
Assessing inter-relations between fintech diffusion, financial inclusion and economic development across 63 provinces of Vietnam: a panel data study
Student: Nguyễn Thảo My, VNP-30
Supervisor: Dr. Hồ Hoàng Anh
Abstract:
This thesis investigates the interrelationships among fintech diffusion, financial inclusion, and economic development across Vietnam’s 63 provinces during the period 2015 – 2021. In the
context of rapid digital transformation and persistent regional disparities, the thesis examines whether the diffusion of fintech contributes to inclusive growth at the provincial level. Fintech
diffusion is proxied by mobile phone subscriptions, financial inclusion is measured using a demand-side composite index constructed from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS), and economic development is captured by provincial GDP per capita. To address potential simultaneity and endogeneity among the core variables, the analysis adopts a three-equation simultaneous system estimated using the Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) method. This framework enables explicit modeling of feedback effects and transmission mechanisms linking digital technology adoption, financial inclusion, and income outcomes. The empirical findings show that fintech diffusion significantly enhances financial inclusion, while financial inclusion exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on provincial income levels. By contrast, fintech diffusion does not directly affect economic growth, indicating that its growth-enhancing role operates primarily through the financial inclusion channel. These results highlight financial inclusion as a key mechanism through which digital technologies influence development outcomes. Overall, the study provides provincial-level evidence that fintech functions as an enabling platform for inclusive and regionally balanced economic growth in Vietnam, rather than as an independent driver of growth.
JEL Classification: O33, G21, G28, O47, R11
Keywords: fintech diffusion; financial inclusion; mobile technology; economic growth; provincial analysis; Vietnam

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Vương Thị Khuyên
2026-02-24 00:00
Conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa: The impact of Chinese aid as external intervention
Student: Vương Thị Khuyên, VNP-30
Supervisor: Assoc.Prof.Dr. Ellisaios Papyrakis & Dr. Nguyễn Quang
Abstract:
This study examines the impact of Chinese aid on conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa during the period 2001-2021. Chinese aid is different from traditional aid, as its largely aims to provide concessional financial assistance for infrastructure projects. Over the past decades, these large-scale financial flows are argued to create economic and social imbalances in recipient countries, which in turn fuels local conflict. The findings reveal Chinese aid is associated with higher levels of conflict at the district level in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly increased repression against local civilians. Using a spatial analysis model, the research finds that state conflict against armed groups has a decentralisation effect exclusively in areas inhabited by politically powerless ethnic groups. It then proposes two possible mechanisms, based on the literature on external intervention and conflict: either the influence of these groups in their homelands has been weakening, or a deterrence effect arising from China’s presence in the areas.
JEL classification: D74, F35, F51, O55, P33, P34, Q34
Keywords: Conflict, Chinese Aid, Sub-Saharan Africa, Civil Conflict, Foreign Aid

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Trình Thị Thanh Trà
2026-03-03 00:00
Corruption and poverty impact on health sector in Vietnam
Student: Trình Thị Thanh Trà, VNP-30
Supervisor: Prof.Dr. Arjun Bedi & Dr. Hồ Quốc Thông
Abstract:
This study investigates how control of corruption and multidimensional poverty interact to affect provincial health outcomes in Viet Nam. Using panel data from 54 provinces over the period 2016–2023, under–five mortality is employed as dependent variable. Two corruption indicators are used varied perspective: corruption control perceived by firms and corruption control perceived by citizens. To estimate the data, the study applies OLS, FE model to interpret the main result. Results show that on one hand poverty has a negative influence on child mortality. Control of corruption decrease the rate. Moreover, stronger control is associated with a weaker relationship between poverty and child mortality. The findings imply that in order to improve healthcare performance in Viet Nam, it required higher level of accountability and poverty reduction in all dimensions.
Keywords: Corruption; Poverty; Vietnam; health; interaction
