VNP | Chương trình Việt Nam - Hà Lan

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Lê Thị Quỳnh Nga
2026-02-02 00:00 (Asia/Krasnoyarsk)
Exploring the impact of labor market conditions on business development in Vietnam: a provincial level analysis
Student: Lê Thị Quỳnh Nga, VNP-30
Supervisor: Prof. Almas Heshmati
Abstract:
Labor market conditions (LMC) play a crucial role in business development (BD) and provincial income generation, yet their combined interaction at the provincial level remains insufficiently examined in Vietnam. This thesis investigates how LMC are associated with BD and provincial income across 63 provinces during 2018–2023. Using provincial data from the Vietnam General Statistics Office (GSO) and the Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI), the study applies a simultaneous equation framework estimated by Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) method to account for the interdependence between enterprise density and gross regional domestic product (GRDP) per capita. The findings indicate that LMC, together with institutional and provincial economic indicators (PEI), are closely related to enterprise activity and income differences across provinces. A nonlinear and bidirectional relationship is observed between BD and GRDP per capita, with diminishing marginal effects at higher levels of enterprise density and income. Significant regional disparities is likely to persist, as economic activity is concentrated in a small group of advantaged provinces while less-developed regions lag behind. These results highlight the importance of balanced and inclusive regional planning, improved labor allocation, streamlined administrative procedures, and stronger institutional quality to support sustainable BD and reduced provincial development gaps in Vietnam.
Keywords: Business development; Labor market conditions; Provincial economic indicators; Provincial Competitiveness Index; GRDP per capita; Vietnamese provinces
JEL Classification Codes: J21; J24; L26; R11; C33

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Phạm Nam Phương
2026-02-24 00:00
Leverage and performance under sustainability lens: sectoral evidence from Vietnam
Student: Phạm Nam Phương, VNP-30
Supervisor: Dr. Nguyễn Thị Tuyết Nhung
Abstract:
As Vietnamese firms expand and leverage becomes an increasingly common tool to finance growth, the question of when debt enhances performance—and when it undermines it—has become more critical than ever. This thesis examines how financial leverage affects firm performance in Vietnam and whether this relationship differs across industries classified by eligibility under the EU Taxonomy framework. Using an unbalanced panel of non-financial firms listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange and the Hanoi Stock Exchange from 2012 to 2023, the study applies firm fixed-effects panel regressions with year controls and robust standard errors to account for unobserved heterogeneity. The findings show that financial leverage has a statistically significant negative impact on firm performance, confirming that excessive reliance on debt constrains operational efficiency in an emerging market context. While industry eligibility is explored as a potential moderating factor, the results indicate that the adverse performance effects of leverage remain broadly similar across eligible and non-eligible industries, with no robust evidence of systematic
heterogeneity. These findings suggest that eligibility-based industry classification is not statistically significant in the fixed-effects specification. By integrating eligibility into the analysis of leverage and performance, this study provides insights for managers, investors, and policymakers seeking to balance growth, financial stability, and sustainable development in Vietnam.
JEL Classification: G30, G32, O16, Q56
Keywords: Capital structure, financial leverage, firm performance, EU Taxonomy, Fixed-effects panel regression model

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Nguyễn Thảo My
2026-02-24 00:00
Assessing inter-relations between fintech diffusion, financial inclusion and economic development across 63 provinces of Vietnam: a panel data study
Student: Nguyễn Thảo My, VNP-30
Supervisor: Dr. Hồ Hoàng Anh
Abstract:
This thesis investigates the interrelationships among fintech diffusion, financial inclusion, and economic development across Vietnam’s 63 provinces during the period 2015 – 2021. In the
context of rapid digital transformation and persistent regional disparities, the thesis examines whether the diffusion of fintech contributes to inclusive growth at the provincial level. Fintech
diffusion is proxied by mobile phone subscriptions, financial inclusion is measured using a demand-side composite index constructed from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS), and economic development is captured by provincial GDP per capita. To address potential simultaneity and endogeneity among the core variables, the analysis adopts a three-equation simultaneous system estimated using the Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) method. This framework enables explicit modeling of feedback effects and transmission mechanisms linking digital technology adoption, financial inclusion, and income outcomes. The empirical findings show that fintech diffusion significantly enhances financial inclusion, while financial inclusion exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on provincial income levels. By contrast, fintech diffusion does not directly affect economic growth, indicating that its growth-enhancing role operates primarily through the financial inclusion channel. These results highlight financial inclusion as a key mechanism through which digital technologies influence development outcomes. Overall, the study provides provincial-level evidence that fintech functions as an enabling platform for inclusive and regionally balanced economic growth in Vietnam, rather than as an independent driver of growth.
JEL Classification: O33, G21, G28, O47, R11
Keywords: fintech diffusion; financial inclusion; mobile technology; economic growth; provincial analysis; Vietnam

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Vương Thị Khuyên
2026-02-24 00:00
Conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa: The impact of Chinese aid as external intervention
Student: Vương Thị Khuyên, VNP-30
Supervisor: Assoc.Prof.Dr. Ellisaios Papyrakis & Dr. Nguyễn Quang
Abstract:
This study examines the impact of Chinese aid on conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa during the period 2001-2021. Chinese aid is different from traditional aid, as its largely aims to provide concessional financial assistance for infrastructure projects. Over the past decades, these large-scale financial flows are argued to create economic and social imbalances in recipient countries, which in turn fuels local conflict. The findings reveal Chinese aid is associated with higher levels of conflict at the district level in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly increased repression against local civilians. Using a spatial analysis model, the research finds that state conflict against armed groups has a decentralisation effect exclusively in areas inhabited by politically powerless ethnic groups. It then proposes two possible mechanisms, based on the literature on external intervention and conflict: either the influence of these groups in their homelands has been weakening, or a deterrence effect arising from China’s presence in the areas.
JEL classification: D74, F35, F51, O55, P33, P34, Q34
Keywords: Conflict, Chinese Aid, Sub-Saharan Africa, Civil Conflict, Foreign Aid

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Trình Thị Thanh Trà
2026-03-03 00:00
Corruption and poverty impact on health sector in Vietnam
Student: Trình Thị Thanh Trà, VNP-30
Supervisor: Prof.Dr. Arjun Bedi & Dr. Hồ Quốc Thông
Abstract:
This study investigates how control of corruption and multidimensional poverty interact to affect provincial health outcomes in Viet Nam. Using panel data from 54 provinces over the period 2016–2023, under–five mortality is employed as dependent variable. Two corruption indicators are used varied perspective: corruption control perceived by firms and corruption control perceived by citizens. To estimate the data, the study applies OLS, FE model to interpret the main result. Results show that on one hand poverty has a negative influence on child mortality. Control of corruption decrease the rate. Moreover, stronger control is associated with a weaker relationship between poverty and child mortality. The findings imply that in order to improve healthcare performance in Viet Nam, it required higher level of accountability and poverty reduction in all dimensions.
Keywords: Corruption; Poverty; Vietnam; health; interaction

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Tăng Huy Bảo
2026-03-03 00:00
The fog of news: how news-based geopolitical risk clouds bilateral trade
Student: Tăng Huy Bảo, VNP-30
Supervisor: Dr. Binyam Demena & Prof.Dr. Nguyễn Trọng Hoài
Abstract:
The hyper-globalization paradigm after the Cold War is disintegrating and is giving way to a new arena of strategic competition in which economic efficacy and national security rival each other. Although the devastating influence of active war on trade is not much of a secret, the consequences of the ubiquitous threat of war the fear and perception of geopolitical tension remain little known. This study investigates how dyadic Geopolitical Risk (GPR), measured through news media interpretation of conflicts and tensions, influences bilateral size-adjusted trade flows. The results reveal a critical temporal dynamic: GPR does not disrupt trade contemporaneously. Instead, it exhibits a significant “phasing-in” effect, with negative impacts materializing after a
one-year lag and accumulating over a three-year period. A joint GPR shock leads to a three-year cumulative trade reduction of approximately 15%. These results underscore the delayed but consistent nature of the geopolitical uncertainty and how risk perception may erode world economic integration even in the absence of actual conflict situations.
Keywords: Geopolitical Risk, Bilateral Trade, Gravity Model, Phasing-In Effect, News-Based Index

Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Trần Anh Dũng
2026-03-03 00:00
How Does Government Transparency Affect Foreign Direct Investment and Fiscal Budget: The Case of Vietnam
Student: Trần Anh Dũng, VNP-30
Supervisor: Dr. Zemzem Shuka & Prof.Dr. Nguyễn Trọng Hoài
Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of government transparency on attracting Foreign Direct Investment capital inflows and its transmitted effect on government budget revenue. Grounded in Public Finance Theory, this research addresses a critical question: Can the use of government openness as a meta-public good enhance the capital inflows, which act as a transmission channel to a return in fiscal capacity? Using a provincial-level dataset and employing a dynamic Two-Step System Generalised Method of Moments to address potential endogeneity from reversal causality, the analysis reveals two key findings. Firstly, transparency acts as a significant tool for the realisation of FDI projects, rather than attracting new foreign capital. By reduces the administrative frictions and uncertainty of government due to asymmetric information, transparency releases these constraints on project execution and improve the post-entry stage of cross-border investments. Secondly, the fiscal benefits of transparency are neither statistically significant nor transmitted through foreign investment, but are likely to operate through broader channels and to enhance domestic capacity in the long run. The conclusion is that transparency is an essential meta-public good and crucial to the efficiency of the government’s allocation functions in the short run and stabilisation functions in the longer term. Policymakers can consider this a strategic, cost-effective alternative to traditional incentives to support the implementation of cross-border investment
and promote sustainable economic development in Vietnam.

Key Concept: Foreign Direct Investment, Government Transparency, Tax Revenue, Provincial Budget, Governance Quality

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Nguyễn Thị Kiều Nhung
2026-06-11 00:00
Is Asia’s fertility decline linked to foreign investment? An empirical investigation?
Student: Nguyễn Thị Kiều Nhung, VNP-29
Supervisor: Dr. Đặng Đình Thắng
Abstract:
This thesis investigates the complex relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) across 40 Asian economies. As Asia undergoes a rapid demographic
metamorphosis, understanding how international capital inflows are associated with changes in reproductive behavior has become a critical concern for sustainable development and future labor stability. Using a panel-data regression framework with model selection guided by the Hausman specification test, this thesis identifies an inverse relationship between cumulative FDI stock and fertility rates across Asia. The analysis further reveals significant heterogeneity across geographic regions and countries with different levels of urbanization and initial fertility. The negative association between FDI and fertility is most pronounced in East and Southeast Asia, followed by West Asia, while being notably moderated in South and Central Asia. Furthermore, the correlational estimates are stronger among the countries with a high level of urbanization and among those with a high level of initial fertility.
Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Demographic Transition, Threshold Effect, Urbanization, Asia.
JEL classifications: F21, J13, O18, R11

Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Võ Ngọc Tường Vy
2026-08-19 16:00 - 17:00 | H.305, 1A Hoang Dieu Street, Phu Nhuan Ward, Ho Chi Minh, Viet Nam
Alternative behavioral data as screening signals: incremental predictive power and economic implications in credit scoring among thin-file borrowers in Vietnam
Student: Võ Ngọc Tường Vy, VNP-29
Supervisor: Dr. Trương Đăng Thụy
Abstract:
This thesis examines whether alternative behavioural-information proxies provide incremental predictive power beyond traditional credit-information proxies in screening small-value, short-term consumer loans for thin-file and new-to-bank applicants in Vietnam. The anonymised and feature-masked data-set was provided by KCI Credit Information Joint Stock Company and contains 10,023 unique applicant-originated-loan records. Predictors were measured at or before the scoring point, while the dependent variable records whether the corresponding one-month loan subsequently reached 30 days past due (DPD30+) after being observed through maturity and for at least 30 additional days. The primary analysis uses unweighted Baseline and Extended Logistic Regression models. RF52 uses the same final 52 predictors as the Extended Logistic Regression and provides a clean algorithm-only robustness comparison. A separate supplementary RF92
model uses all 92 screened source predictors to assess the broader KCI information environment; it is not used to identify the incremental contribution of the behavioural block.
After diagnostic removal of one duplicated traditional predictor and twelve deterministically dependent behavioural predictors, the Baseline model retained 18 predictors and the Extended model retained 52 predictors. On the ordered out-of-time test sample, the Extended Logistic Regression increased AUC from 0.6515 to 0.6954 and KS from 0.2218 to 0.2999; the paired DeLong test confirmed that the AUC gain was statistically significant (z = 4.934, p < 0.001). Within the thin-file proxy segment, AUC increased from 0.5699 to 0.6449 and KS from 0.1300 to 0.2516. The Extended model also produced a lower Brier score and lower observed bad rates among approved loans at the evaluated predicted-risk cut-offs. Weighted Logistic Regression produced similar ranking results but was retained only as a supplementary sensitivity analysis. The findings indicate that governed behavioural information can complement traditional credit information,
particularly where formal credit histories are sparse; they do not imply that alternative data should replace conventional credit assessment or that the estimated probabilities constitute
regulatory PD measures.
Keywords: alternative behavioural information; credit scoring; DPD30+; thin-file borrowers; new-to-bank; logistic regression; Vietnam; model governance
