VNP | Chương trình Việt Nam - Hà Lan

Thesis Public Defense | VNP24 - Võ Thành Luân
2021-08-28 00:00 (Asia/Krasnoyarsk)
The impact of currency devaluation on macroeconomic indicators
Student: Võ Thành Luân, VNP 24
Supervisor: Dr. Võ Hồng Đức
Abstract:
This dissertation examines the impact of currency devaluation on major macroeconomic indicators including real effective exchange rate, trade balance, inflation, foreign direct investment inflows, and gross domestic product. The study aims to answer the central question, “How is each macroeconomic indicator impacted when a country devaluates its currency?”
The sample of nine emerging Asian countries, including India, Indonesia, Jordan, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam is used. The annual time series data were collected over a period from 1996 to 2019. This study uses the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) approach within a generalized method of moments (GMM) framework to investigate the relationship between these macroeconomic indicators dynamically using the impulse response functions and variance decomposition.
Our empirical findings suggest that currency devaluation will boost the trade balance while also improves output growth. However, the negative consequence is that currency devaluation will result in an increase in inflation. The results also reveal that the currency devaluation is the most important element in explaining inflation fluctuations. In addition, the positive impact of currency devaluation on attracting foreign direct investment is found. Moreover, findings confirm that macroeconomic factors such as the balance of trade, FDI inflows and consumer price index explain significantly the change in exchange rate.
On the ground of these empirical findings, policy implications have emerged. As a result, we consider that it is necessary to put the exchange rate in the context of the interplay with other macroeconomic indicators in order to manage the exchange rate. We recommend that it is necessary to pursue the objectives of stabilizing the exchange rate and controlling inflation. These objectives should be taken into consideration in order to improve the purchasing power of the currency in contrast to other foreign currencies.
Keywords: Currency Devaluation, Macroeconomic indicators, Emerging Asian, Panel VAR, GMM-System, Impulse Response Functions, Variance Decomposition.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP23 - Vương Ngọc Vy Vân
2021-08-28 00:00
Does the EU poverty indicator for 2020 Target disadvantage the elderly population?
Student: Vương Ngọc Vy Vân, VNP 23
Supervisor: Dr. Võ Tất Thắng
Abstract:
The EU has used the AROPE – at risk of poverty or social exclusion as the key indicator in the last decade to montior their poverty and social inclusion progress against the Europe 2020 Strategy. As the strategy’s period recently ends, the poverty reduction target is likely to be the only unachievable one. This paper analyses the AROPE to examine the
hypothesis of medical expense exclusion in the poverty calculation leading to the elderly poverty underestiment. This incidence, in turn, can cause the policy’s lack of attention to older people, so contributing to the objective failure. Data were derived from Eurostat and the SHARE – Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe Wave 7. Although healthcare cost is proved to correlate to the poverty, it is not considered as a key factor in AROPE composition. By addressing the impoverishment effect of healthcare out-of-pocket payment on the elderly headcount poverty ratios in 12 countries, the study shows that the higher the poverty bar is lifted from 5-10-20 euros per day, the more severe the impact is. Together, this research provide an untapped viewpoint for the Europe 2020 final
assessment later, to consider healthcare costs in the poverty indicator.
JEL Classification: J14, I15, N34
Keywords: elderly poverty, healthcare out-of-pocket payment, impoverishment effect, Lorenz-curve regression

Thesis Public Defense | VNP24 Nguyễn Võ Hoàng
2021-02-23 00:00
The impacts of budget policy on economic growth of cities and provinces of the Mekong River Delta
(2005-2018)
Student: Nguyễn Võ Hoàng, VNP 24
Supervisor: Dr. Trương Đăng Thụy
Abstract:
We conduct this study in order to evaluate the impact of budget policy on Vietnamese economic growth. However, due to the limit of time, this paper limits the scope of the study to the 13 Mekong Delta provinces from the period 2005 to 2018.
According to the definition of capital expenditure, we believe that if the proportion of State expenditure is highly concentrated on capital expenditure would cause positive impacts on economic growth. Hence, the first goal of our study is to test whether or not the higher share of local government capital expenditure cause a positive impacts on economic growth of cities and provinces of the Mekong River Delta. Secondly, we also test if the higher share of local government own source revenue cause a positive impacts on economic growth of cities and provinces of the Mekong River Delta. However, in Vietnam, the index of the size of local revenue is not considered a good indicator of decentralization. Nowadays, local revenue has always been imposed by the Central government; therefore, it does not reflect correctly the local autonomy. Therefore, in this study we are more interested in the allocation of local government’s budget on capital expenditure to analyze the effect of capital expenditure on economic growth.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Nguyễn Thị Thu Thanh
2021-02-23 00:00, 2021-01-29 00:00
Corporate governance, diversification strategies and firm performance: Evidence from listed companies on Ho Chi Minh stock exchange
Student: Nguyễn Thị Thu Thanh, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Vũ Việt Quảng
Abstract:
This study evaluated the effects of internal corporate governance to the levels of diversification in Vietnam, a developing country in Asia, and explored the effectiveness of the diversification strategy to firm performance. The data of 111 listed firms on HOSE from 2010 to 2019 was collected. By using OLS, FEM, REM, the study concluded agency theory could explain the relationship between corporate governance and diversification in case of Vietnam. The relationship between CEO’s ownership or board size and diversification was not significant, while the duality in position of CEO, board independence and blockholder had negative impact on the degree of diversification. This study also contributed some practical results in Vietnam market that the most diversified companies will significantly increase the firm value by taking advantage of corporate governance.
Keywords: Corporate governance, diversification, firm performance.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Trương Hoàng Yến
2021-02-23 00:00
Trade liberalization and food security: A new approach with global food security index
Student: Trương Hoàng Yến, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Phạm Thị Bích Ngọc
Abstract:
Free trade has been still a controversial issue in policies aimed at improving the well-being of nations, of which the fundamental demand is food security. This study estimates the impact of trade liberalization on food security, measured by the global food security index (GFSI), for 109 countries in a panel framework over the period 2012–2018 determined by data availability. The main contribution to the existing literature is a causal impact at an overall level of food security instead of each of its dimensions. The system GMM estimator was employed to account for unobserved heterogeneity and potential endogeneity of the explanatory variables. The result indicated that trade openness had a positive and statistically significant effect on GFSI. In particular, one unit change in trade openness was associated with an average of 0.13 unit increase in the overall GFSI in the long run. The food security’s composite indicator was also positively affected by cereal area harvested and level of economic development. While FDI net inflows, rural population, armed conflict, and inflation drove a reduction in the GFSI. Landlocked countries were found to be less food-secure than others. Moreover, sensitivity analysis of alternative measures of openness further lent support to the idea that both trade volume and open policy environment positively impacted food security.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Nguyễn Thị Thùy Trang
2021-02-23 00:00
Corporate bond market boom and its implication: Empirical evidence real estate firm Vietnamese
Student: Nguyễn Thị Thùy Trang, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Vũ Việt Quảng
Abstract:
This study tries to examine the direct impact of “corporate bond market boom”(bond boom) on firm performance of sixty listed real estate company on both HOSE and HNX in the 2015-2019 period. Bond issuance is an effective capital mobilization channel in the context of tightened credit by the State Bank in the real estate sector since 2018. However, the massive and uncontrolled bond issuance in recent years can bring negative effects on firm performance of real estate companies in particular and the whole economy in general. Economic experts are also concerned that, if this situation lasts too long, the consequences for the following years will be very serious. However, whether the “corporatebond market boom” actually affects the real estate firms performance will be clarified in this research paper. Several descriptive statistic results depict that the relationship of massive bond issuance and firm performance (measured by ROE, ROA) is negative, but with TobinQ is not statistically significant. Differences in differences model with fixed effect technique is used to estimatethis relationship. Similar to the findings of previous empirical studies, the regression results of this researchillustrate the direct pessimistic impact of “corporatebond market boom” on firm performance over the post-2018 period.
Keywords: “corporate bond market boom” , firm performance, differences in differences.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Kiều Công Bằng
2021-02-23 00:00
The effect of exchange rate volatility on the exports of Southeast Asian countries to North America countries for period 2000-2018
Student: Kiều Công Bằng, VNP 25
Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Nguyễn Trọng Hoài
Abstract:
This study estimates the impact of real exchange rate volatility on the exports of ten Southeast Asian Countries to three North American countries for the period 2000-2018. With the trend of regional integration and expanding trade cooperation, these ASEAN countries have an export volume which having been creased continuously to the Northern American countries such as the US, Canada, Mexico which belong to NAFTA in recent years. This research uses three measures in static and dynamic panel model for estimating the relationship between real exchange rate volatility and export of ten ASEAN countries to three Northern American countries over period 2000:M1 to 2018:M12 which is fixed effect, random effect, System generalized method of moments (S-GMM). Further, determining real exchange rate volatility in this paper focus on three methods, which are Absolute of real exchange rate, Moving average standard deviation (MASD), Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity GARCH(1,1). It is illustrated that this study finds out that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact to export in ten Southeast Asian Countries to 3 North American countries when it is determined by absolute, MASD methods, and has opposite results when it is calculated by GARCH(1,1) methods. Besides, the Term of trade has an inverse effect on ten ASEAN’s export.
JEL Classification: G28, I25
Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, Exports, ASEAN countries, Northern American countries, Panel data set

Thesis Public Defense | VNP23 Dương Thị Ngọc Quỳnh Copy
2021-01-29 00:00
The impact of international financial intergation on economic growth
Student: Dương Thị Ngọc Quỳnh, VNP 23
Supervisor: Dr. Nguyễn Vũ Hồng Thái
Abstract:
In recent decades, international financial integration seems to have been more interested by policy makers as well as academic researchers because countries can reap its benefit when satisfying some definite conditions. However, the pioneering researchers have encountered many difficulties in quantifying the IFI variable. And there have been mixed opinions in empirical studies to assess the correlation between IFI and economic growth. This research paper contributes to the empirical literature that investigate the relationship between international financial integration and economic growth by using a cross-national and panel dataset of encompassing 178 countries over the period 1996-2015 relying on the estimation methods of OLS, 2SLS, OLS with Fixed Effects, and GMM. This research result reveals the beneficial impacts of international financial integration on economic growth are likely to be too small to be distinguished from zero, given existing data in spite of IFI is being in negative association with growth rate in statistically significance.
Keywords: International Financial Integration, Economic Growth, Cross-national Regression, Panel Regression.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Khương Lan Uyên
2021-01-29 00:00
Determinants of foreign direct investment in environmental relevant sectors: The case of OECD countries
Student: Khương Lan Uyên, VNP 25
Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk & Dr. Nguyễn Hoàng Bảo
Abstract:
Almost all nations are trying to promote economic growth as well as narrowing inequality gap. However, they are required to concern about climate change goal which are commonly agreed by international community under Paris Agreement. There are numerous researches about total FDI or FDI in general, however, green or low carbon FDI seem to be ignored. Studying about green or low-carbon FDI is an attempt to combine economic growth and climate change goal. According to World investment report (UNCTAD, 2020), investment in sustainable development has grown quickly in “number, variety and size” and mainly flows in developed countries. Different studies have been conducted on determining determinants to attract FDI inflows as a whole or test impacts of FDI on environment and while the analysis
of green FDI is rarely discussed. A panel sample, which covers 31 OECD countries in the period of 2005 – 2018 is used for estimation. The research aims to study the effectiveness of GDP, environmental taxes, feed-in tariffs and government spending on R&D for energy
efficiency on inward green FDI stock through basic panel analysis. This paper applies basic descriptive statistics and panel data regression models, such as Pooled OLS, Fixed Effect, Random effect and then uses BP test and Hausman test to choose the best estimation models. Results show that economic activities and environmental policies play crucial role in defining green FDI in OECD nations. All of these are proved to be correlated with higher attraction of FDI.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Trịnh Quốc Minh
2021-01-29 00:00
Financial development and energy consumption: Which causes which in the Asia Pacific region?
Student: Trịnh Quốc Minh, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Võ Hồng Đức
Abstract:
The Asia Pacific region has been playing an essential role in global economic growth.Among other factors, financial development, accounting 37 percent of global banking profit, has played a crucial role in this economic growth. Also, in supporting this economic growth, energy consumption from the region accounted for more than half of global energy demand in 2016. While the nexuses between finance-growth and between energy-growth have been widely conducted, the inter-relationship between financial development and energy consumption appears to be underexamined in current empirical analyses, in particular for the Asia Pacific region. This study aims to examine the long-term impact of financial development on energy consumption and their Granger causality based on the sample of 21 Asia Pacific countries during the 1990-2019 period. The long-run estimator – the fully modified ordinary least squares, is utilized in this paper. Various indicators are used as the proxies for financial development to ensure the robustness of the findings. We find significant evidence on the positive long-run effect of financial development on energy consumption. In addition, a bi-directional Granger causality between financial development and energy consumption is found. Various policy implications have emerged based on the empirical findings of this paper.
Keywords: CAPM, multi factor asset pricing models, utilities, ASEAN 5, quantile regression, Risk-Return framework

Thesis Public Defense | VNP23 Dương Thị Ngọc Quỳnh
2021-01-29 00:00

Thesis Public Defense | VNP23 Nguyễn Thị Anh Thư
2021-01-29 00:00
How does entrepreneurship impacts unemployment?
Student: Nguyễn Thị Anh Thư, VNP 23
Supervisor: Dr. Phạm Đình Long
Abstract:
The study investigates how entrepreneurship impacts the unemployment. Since there are the ambiguities found in this relationship through not just theory but the empirical studies, the purpose of this study demonstrates this relationship by an equation vector autoregression model on two variable self-employment, a common measure of entrepreneurship, and the unemployment rate for data from 44 low-middle level income countries from 1992 to 2017. We find out that there is the negative relationship of self-employment associate to unemployment – refer to the “Schumpeter” effect. This conclusion reinforces previous arguments and clarifies the relationship of the entrepreneurship effect on unemployment; therefore the policymakers could review the law which support entrepreneurship activities to improve unemployment rates and the growth of economic.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Lê Thị Mỹ Linh
2021-01-29 00:00
A cost-effectiveness analysis of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) for the antiepileptic drugs (AEDS)
Student: Lê Thị Mỹ Linh, VNP 23
Supervisor: Dr. Võ Tất Thắng
Abstract:
The thesis is focus on the evaluation whether therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) for ADEs more benefits than the current practice. The therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) for 1st ADEs is not the routine practice at Vietnam. One real case is Nhan Dan Gia Dinh Hospital, one of the public hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, which has the 1st AEDs generation are used to treating as the first choice for patients. Due to it was cheap and fully covered by healthcare insurance. The research methodology for this thesis is designed the prospective randomized study. Descriptive statistics results provided some background information of these studied patients. We had 96 patients met the eligibility criteria to be randomized in two groups. All of them were treated at Nhan Dan Gia Dinh Hospital at time this study conducted (to December 2019) for symptom epilepsy including post-stroke seizures or post-stroke epilepsy. The maximum number of medications to be indicated for epilepsy are four. All of them live in Ho Chi Minh city and willing to self-pay 200,000 dong for the TDM test at randomized stage. The baseline therapy for patients was the 1st generation such as Valproic acid was used the most by patients (66 patients), followed by Carbamazepin (37 patients) and Phenytoin (15 patients). Only nine patients (9.36%) was indicated the drug of 2nd generation as the single treatment approach. The remaining part (90.64%) was initiated with the 1st generation and was combined with the 2nd generation after that. The comparison of the burden disease is measured by the cost of two cohorts as the primary outcome. The patient of test-group trended using more the outpatient insurance for medication than the non-test-group patients. And when calculating the ICEA of the cost with the number of seizures showed the cost effectiveness.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Lê Thị Ánh Mai
2021-01-22 00:00
Impacts of long working hours on the mental health of European above the age of 50
Student: Lê Thị Ánh Mai, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Matthias Rieger & Dr. Võ Tất Thắng
Abstract:
Using data from three waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), this study is one of the first to examine the effects of long working hours on the depression symptoms for a population aged over 50 years in 11 European countries. Fixed effects regressions and an instrumental variable approach are applied to overcome the problem of reverse causality between working time and mental health. The estimations give evidence of positive effects of work on the mental health outcome while confirms the adverse impact of working longer than the European regulatory recommendation, which is a 48-hours weekly limit. In an attempt of applying a regression kink design, the study also finds a gradual negative effect of retirement on the old-age depression. Policy implications include better legislation on the statutory working hours for the old age, as well as support on bridge employment or society-contributing activities for this specific group.
Keywords: Long working hours, mental health, aged population, Europe, SHARE, EURO-D depression scale, panel data, fixed effects, instrumental variables, regression kink design
JEL classification: C33, C36, J22, J26, J88, O52

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Phạm Thị Ngọc Mai
2021-01-22 00:00
Financial inclusion and poverty reduction in Asean from 2014 to 2018
Student: Phạm Thị Ngọc Mai, VNP 25
Supervisor: Prof.Dr. Nguyễn Trọng Hoài
Abstract:
Understanding financial inclusion in Asean may help reduce poverty as well as foster economic growth. The aim of this research is to investigate the impact of financial inclusion on poverty in the region during the period 2004-2018. The paper finds that access to the banking system could reduce poverty in Asean. Both Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) techniques are used to examine the relationship. The results show that the outreach of ATMs could help reduce poverty rate. The impacts of outreach of the bank branches on poverty appeared endogeneity problem. This means that the demand for banking services increases when poverty reduction, and poverty reduction with economic growth generates pression on policy to enhance financial inclusion. The results of paper also reflect the improvement of education plays an important role to enhance financial inclusion and alleviates poverty rate, perhaps because both the demand side and the supply side of banking system are require knowledge about financial services. As for trade openness, the paper shows trade openness associate with poverty rate, so policy makers have to carefully consider the state of the economy to have strategy that help their countries achieve optimal benefits rather than lose in competition with foreign countries.
Key words: ASEAN, financial devlopment, financial inclusion, poverty, access
JEL: G00, O11, O16, N2

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Trần Thị Kim Chi
2021-01-22 00:00
The impact of digital marketing on profit of Eco Lian company during Covid-19 context: An approach using difference in differences
Student: Trần Thị Kim Chi, VNP 25
Supervisor: Prof.Dr. Nguyễn Trọng Hoài
Abstract:
Digital Marketing performance measurement is important in Eco Lian Company, it is critical for the operational planning and adjustment of marketing strategies and tactics over time. Approach in this scenario is to study the relationship between quantity of inquiry come from Digital Marketing and profit at Eco Lian Company. This study presents a casual inference methodology – “Difference in Differences (DID) on the application of Digital marketing campaign measurement. Instead of building direct relationship between inquiry and profit, I attempt to create empirical research and study the differential effect on a ‘treatment group’ versus a ‘control group’. This study collects data from Eco Lian Company. The data covers 8 months within Covid-19 context, which ranges from January to August 2020. The data are collected from various sources, such as partner channels, social networks, websites. In order to assess the performance of the Digital Marketing campaign in Eco Lian Company. In this study, I realize that my company truly benefits from Digital Marketing such as search engine marketing (SEM), search engine optimization (SEO), content marketing, remarketing, and promoting partner channels. We determine which channels are effective and which product lines are of interest after using a digital marketing campaign.
JEL Classification: C1, C12, M13, M31, M39, M15
Keywords: Digital Marketing, Online Marketing, Social network, Search Engine Optimization–SEO

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Lưu Bích Thu
2021-01-12 00:00
The impact of climate change on Vietnamese cropland: Ricardian approach
Student: Lưu Bích Thu, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Trương Đăng Thụy
Abstract:
This paper uses data of temperature and precipitation to analyze the impact of climate change on the net revenue of farming households in Vietnam. For this research objective, this study applies the Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is regressed on climatic variables, water flow, soil types, and economic variables, and regional dummies. From the Ricardian regression results, the study calculates the marginal effects of temperature and rainfall of the dry season and wet season. The results indicate that these variables have a significant effect on the net crop revenue per hectare of farmers under Vietnam conditions. Particularly, lower precipitation and higher temperature result in loss of the net farm revenue per hectare in the dry season. I also found that the relationship between household net revenue and weather variables are nonlinear. Net revenue has a hill-shaped relationship with temperature in the dry season. This is explained that if the dry temperature is warmer, net revenue will increase, but dry temperatures can increase up to a point where further temperature increases will damage the crop. Additionally, the study demonstrates the change of net revenue impact of predicted climate scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. These scenarios predicted changes in climate in each district in Vietnam over time (MONRE). Net revenue projected
to decline about 5 million VND/ha and 3.7 million VND/ha due to increasing temperature and changing precipitation in 2050 and 2100, respectively.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Hoàng Ngọc Đạt
2021-01-12 00:00
Determinants of FDI in Vietnam: An application of the gravity model
Student: Hoàng Ngọc Đạt, VNP 24
Supervisor: Dr. Nguyễn Quỳnh Huy
Abstract:
For developing countries, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been identified as an important source of capital, contributing remarkably to economic growth, technological transfer, and poverty reduction. Consequently, the subject is of intense interests to both economists and policy makers. Many studies have been conducted to analyse the determinants of FDI and its impacts on different aspects of the economy and solutions to increase desirable FDI projects. This research aims to expand the literature by applying an augmented gravity model to investigate factors pulling FDI towards Vietnam over the period from 2008 to 2019, focusing on the top 10 foreign investors in Vietnam, understanding the extent of the impacts of FDI and proposing policies that make Vietnam more appealing to foreign investors. The research finds out that the gravity variables as proxies by GDP per capita and distance from source countries to Vietnam have expected impacts as indicated in existing literature and are statistically important in the prediction of FDI inflows. Additionally, other important factors worth mentioning include institutions and ease of doing business, trade openness, infrastructure, inflation rate and exchange rate. Based on the findings, policies are suggested to help attract more FDI projects to Vietnam in the future.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Trần Thị Thu Vân
2021-01-12 00:00
Education and transition to employment among the youth in Vietnam
Student: Trần Thị Thu Vân, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Trương Đăng Thụy
Abstract:
The successful transition to employment marks a significant milestone in one’s life, as the participation in the workplace provides financial independence, social networks, and self- steem. However, few empirical estimates have been conducted in Vietnam to find out the determinants affect the transition duration and the quality employment among the youths. This thesis examines the relationship between education attainment and the school-to-work transition of school-leavers from 15 to 29 years old in Vietnam using data is from School to Work Transition Surveys 2015. This thesis, first, uses the diagram of the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival Function to show how hazard rates differ with educational attainment, gender, region, urban/ rural. Next, the exponential proportional hazard model is used to estimate the relationship between education status and the rate of transition to first paid employment, controlling for background covariates. Finally, among who have the first paid job, a multinomial logit model (MLM) is used to investigate factors affecting the likelihood of an individual choosing a given occupation (including ‘self-employment; ‘wage employment with a contract’, and ‘wage employment without a contract’). The same analyses are repeated for transition to first regular or satisfactory employment.
This thesis has generated several key findings. First, the high education results in earlier entering the first paid employment and higher probability of entering the wage employment with a contract. Second, female youths find job faster than male youths. Female youths have a higher rate of working as wage employment with a contract, while male youth is more likely to be in wage employment without a contract. Third, the youths living in rural find job at a faster rate than the urban youths and have a higher rate of getting the first paid job in the form of wage employment with a contract. Fourth, family background (showing through parental education) does not affect the probability of young Vietnamese getting their first paid job and their job selections. Fifth, Northern midland and mountain area, and North Central Coast have a lower rates of transition to first paid employment than the reference category Red River Delta. The rate of youth living in these regions is also less likely to get wage employment with a contract than in Red River Delta. Sixth, the length of time to transition to first regular or satisfactory job is longer than to first paid job.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Lê Ngọc Mai Thanh
2020-12-17 00:00
The impact of provincial migration on growth in Vietnam between 2010 and 2018
Student: Lê Ngọc Mai Thanh, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Hồ Quốc Thông
Abstract:
This research aims to discover the impact of internal migration on economic growth in 63 provinces in Vietnam during the period 2010-2018. To achieve the objective of this study, Fixed Effect (FE) is employed to investigate the overall impact of immigration and
emigration on growth rate. The descriptive statistic gives some information that for each cluster of provinces, migration, and economic growth share different patterns. Agricultural areas observed the same direction of those factors, while manufacture and services regions,
growth rate, and migration had opposite trends. Although many previous papers agree with the positive effect of population movement on the growth rate, it was found from this research that a negative relationship occurs between two factors. The policy implications of this result are providing job opportunities, investing in all economic sectors, and promoting satellite city construction projects.
Keywords: Migration, Immigration, Emigration, Growth rate, Fixed Effect technique, Vietnam.
JEL classification: J62, J64, J22, J23, J61, O18.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Thái Thị Cẩm Vân
2020-12-17 00:00
Ranking of municipal waste treatment options based on sustainable development indicators: Evidence from OED countries
Student: Thái Thị Cẩm Vân, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Trương Đăng Thụy
Abstract:
The continuous growth in the amount of waste and its dangers to environmental degradation and human health are alarming globally. Determining the optimal option of waste treatment, which must take into account a set of environmental, economic and social criteria, is an urgent issue as the global strives towards the goal of “Zero Waste” or “Zero Landfilling”. This study aims to assist policy makers in identifying the most appropriate direction for sustainable waste management by presenting the impact of sustainability indicators as basis for evaluating and ranking optimal waste treatment options. Four options are evaluated and compared based on sustainability indicators through environmental, economic and social dimensions by using an integrated waste management model: conventional option (landfills) and three other options for energy recovery and resource conservation including composting, recycling, and incineration of waste. To assess the impact of sustainable development indicators on waste management, the author performed Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), robustness check by Three-Stage Least Square (3SLS) on the dataset of 34 OECD countries from 1990 to 2016. Based on the results obtained from the quantitative approach, multi-criteria decision analysis is applied for determine the final aggregate result. The purpose of this analytical process to determine the most optimal waste treatment option, pair comparison is applied to build hierarchical decision system through the Hierarchical Analytical Process (AHP method). The results reveal that recycling considered as the optimal municipal waste treatment option in sustainable waste management, incineration and composting are followed, while landfilling is considered as the worst option.
Keywords: municipal waste treatment, WKC hypothesis, sustainable development indicators, Ecological Footprint, HDI, SUR, 3SLS, AHP method.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Nguyễn Phan Trúc Phương
2020-12-17 00:00
The impact of financial development on the effectiveness of monetary policy
Student: Nguyễn Phan Trúc Phương, VNP 25
Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Nguyễn Trọng Hoài
Abstract:
In recent years, there have been many theoretical and empirical studies on the impact of financial development in promoting economic growth and stability. This study aims to determine the effectiveness of the monetary policy on economic growth and stability affecting
the development of financial institutions and financial markets as measured across three aspects of depth, access, and efficiency. In this paper, that relationship is analyzed based on panel data for 144 countries from 1990 to 2017. The results show that the effectiveness of the
monetary policy on output and inflation has a significantly negative effect on financial development indicators. In particular, the paper finds large differences between the three levels of income in terms of the impact of financial development on the effects of money growth on output and inflation. This paper provides an evidence-based approach to the influence of different aspects of financial development on the effectiveness of the monetary policy on growth and inflation between income levels and regions.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Mai Kiên Trung
2020-11-22 00:00
The export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country and panel analyses
Student: Mai Kiên Trung, VNP 25
Supervisor: Assoc.Prof.Dr. Phạm Đình Long
Abstract:
Hausmann, Hwang, and Rodrik (2007) (HHR) argued that the export structure of a country has a vital role in economic development. They developed two indicators, PRODY and EXPY, that measure the income level of a good and country’s export basket, respectively. The authors proved that higher EXPY would lead to faster subsequent economic growth. A majority of empirical papers have employed the widely used EXPY to draw their results, but they refrain from discussing the features of the indicators. Huber (2017) paid his attention to the shortcomings of the indicator. In the present study, the author considers three problems of HHR’s PRODY, including the sample balancing, the disaggregated level of goods, and the calculation procedure. After that, the resulting EXPY computed from the adjusted PRODY will be used to investigate the positive relationship between export sophistication and economic growth. The study uses the BACI dataset from CEPII that contains over 200 million disaggregated bilateral trade flows at HS 6-digits for over 200 countries from 1996 to 2018. The study confirms the main conclusion in HHR (2007), which claims that a country producing and exporting goods exported by rich countries tends to grow faster than a country specializes in other goods. Interestingly, the present study finds that the magnitude of EXPY’s effect on growth is smaller than the one in HHR but more significant. The four 5-years sub-periods analysis estimated by the system-GMM method implies that a 10% increase in EXPY is associated with a 0.45 percentage point increase in growth rate.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Nguyễn Thiện Nhân
2020-11-22 00:00
The presence of global financial center and environmental degradation: Evidence from Asia-Pacific region.
Student: Nguyễn Thiện Nhân, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Nguyễn Hoài Bảo
Abstract:
The world has observed the formation and advancement of metropolitan cities in the earliest twentieth century. The twenty-first century has witnessed a dramatical increase in the establishment of the global financial centre (GFC). London and New York claim the first and second major and largest centres in the world stage. Hongkong, Singapore, Shanghai, Tokyo, Sydney appear to be the main financial centres in the Asia-Pacific region.
Establishing a GFC appears to be an essential goal from emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region to support economic growth. The establishment of such a centre requires a multifaceted approach in which theoretical and practical aspects are important to be considered. The well-designed and comprehensive analyses of identifying determinants for a GFC are very limited, in particular for the Asia-Pacific region. As such, this study is conducted to examine and identify the fundamental determinants leading to the establishment of a GFC in the Asia-Pacific region. We identify 14 determinants from the current literature. We then construct 16,384 models to consider the relevance and importance of each of these 14 determinants in the context of the Asia-Pacific region. The Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) is used with a sample of 35 Asia-Pacific for the 2007-2017 period. Findings from our initial analyses indicate that emerging and developing countries in the region should focus on the following four fundamental determinants: the freedom to trade internationally; market size; higher education and training, and the size of the government.
We then extend our analysis using a more robust set of criteria and additional quantitative technique which is known as the weighted average least square. The size of the government appears to be relatively less important, in contrast, the other three components, including (i) freedom to trade internationally; (ii) market size; (iii) higher education and training, are the robustly fundamental determinants for the Asia-Pacific region.
Emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region have been putting great effort to achieve the right balance between the benefits of economic growth and the costs of environmental degradation. Establishing the GFC is considered as an effective mechanism to support economic growth. However, the benefits from a GFC should not be at the expense of quality of the environment in order to achieve the so-called sustainable economic development. As such, this study is then extended by applying the concept of the Kuznets environmental curve into a relatively new aspect of financial development in the Asia-Pacific region. Other previous papers use either stock market capitalization to GDP or stock market total value-traded to GDP as a proxy for financial development. This study is unique and different from any other papers. The index of financial development is developed based on the fundamental determinants identified from this study. On the sample of 26 countries in the region over the 2007-2017 period, the long-term effect of financial development to environmental degradation are considered using long-term estimators such as the panel fully modified ordinary least square (PFMOLS), and panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL), including the pooled mean group model (PMGARDL); the mean group (MGARDL); the dynamic fixed effect estimator (DFEARDL) and the Panel smooth transition regression (PSTR). The second-generation Hurlin and Dumitrescu (2012) test is used in determining Granger causality between financial development and environmental degradation. Findings from our paper confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship between financial development and environmental degradation in the Asia-Pacific region. Economic growth and energy consumption are also responsible for the deterioration of environmental quality in the Asia-Pacific region. We then claim that the concept of the Kuznets curve can be applied to the context of financial development. We also find a bidirectional relationship between financial development and environmental degradation. On the ground of findings from this study, several policy implications are provided for the governments in the emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region to consider. These important implications should be used to achieve the following two fundamental objectives. The first objective is to enhance and support national economic growth by establishing the global financial centre when desired. The second objective is to strike for the right balance between the benefits of financial development by establishing the GFC (to support economic growth) and the costs of environmental degradation.
JEL: C11, C33, C34, F38, F64.
Keywords: Bayesian model averaging, IFC, environmental quality, financial development, principle component analysis

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Trần Bùi Thị Hồng Hạnh
2020-11-22 00:00
The impact of financial inclusion on income inequality. The case of Asean plus six
Student: Trần Bùi Thị Hồng Hạnh, VNP 25
Supervisor: Prof.Dr. Nguyen Trọng Hoài
Abstract:
This thesis aims to study the relationship between financial inclusion and income inequality in ASEAN Plus Six. Using data from Global Findex Database of World Bank in period 2004-2017, OLS finds out that financial inclusion can reduce income inequality. However, when concerning the characteristic of countries, FE regression points out the positive relation between number of bank branches per 100,000 adults and income inequality is stronger than negative relation between number of ATMs pe 100,000 adults and income inequality. While using GMM to avoid endogenous problem, result shows that financial inclusion has weak impact on income inequality.
This thesis finds out that the relationship between inclusive financial system and income distribution is different between developing countries and developed countries. In developing countries, raise of financial inclusion can increase income inequality. While in developed countries, financial inclusion development can reduce income inequality ‘’
This paper provides some evidences to show that in developing countries, improving in number of bank braches raises income share of highest income group, and reduces income share of lowest income group. And level of financial inclusion of developing countries is quite lower than developed countries.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Trần Anh Vũ
2020-11-18 00:00
Climate Change and The Global Coffee Industry: Factors That Promote Development in Coffee Production
Student: Trần Anh Vũ, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Hồ Quốc Thông
Abstract:
Agriculture is one of the industries that depend heavily on the climate. Due to various reasons, climate changes lead to harmful phenomena, such as pests, drought, floods, affecting the agriculture sector. These phenomena not only cause destructive impacts on agriculture in general, but also it has some environmentally sensitive influences on particular crops. Coffee is one of the significant contributors to many developing countries’ GDP, such as Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Vietnam, and Indonesia.
Previously, existing studies focused on the impact of climatic factors – i.e., rainfall and temperature on coffee yield. Some examined both environmental factors and socio-economic factors affecting coffee production. These studies focus on the scope of research in certain areas, whereas climate change happens across the globe
Firstly, this study focuses on the interaction between coffee production, climatic, economic, environmental, and geographic variables in the world’s six largest coffee producing and exporting countries. Multiple variables regression model is applied for evaluating the effects of these factors on coffee production in this case.. Data in the model is illustrated in panel data, including climatic data (temperature, precipitation), socio-economic variables, environmental and geographic variables of six countries from 1991 to 2016, which were collected from various secondary data sources.
The results achieved in this study are summarized as follows. The model shows that climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation are the essential climatic factors for coffee production as the results of previous studies indicate coffee’s sensitivity to seasonal temperature changes. The results show a significant effect of summer, autumn, winter temperatures on coffee production. In particular, the impact of average temperature in summer/autumn on coffee production is a negative effect, whereas the average temperature in winter has a positive relationship with coffee production. In terms of average rainfall, the results show that the rainfall does not seem to affect significantly coffee production except for winter precipitation. Although, in practice, rainfall is extremely important for the growth of coffee trees. In addition, some variables belonging to other groups of factors are also significant for coffee output. Specific results will be presented below.
Secondly, the research identifies the relationship of factors affecting the number of projects invested for development related to the coffee industry. Results from the Poisson model and Negative binominal model show that the factors: coffee harvested area, coffee inventory, CO2 emission, GDP, fertilizer price, rural population are the factors that have significant impacts on the model. At the same time, these factors positively impact the number of projects related to coffee.
Thirdly, apply the multiplicative model to build prediction models for coffee production in Vietnam and Brazil based on historical data. The prediction model is based on a comparison of available observations and a predictive model of coffee yields in the two countries. The results of the Vietnamese model forecast are relatively good with deviations below 20%.
Finally, many solutions have been proposed to improve the coffee industry in the case of environmental climate changes, fluctuation of socio-economic factors, environmental and geographic elements. For example, developing information systems helps the producers monitor and manage climate changes and farmers’ production costs. Other methods are proposed, such as establishing a supply chain system to increase profits, developing a coffee industry, and building an effective commercial playground for this industry. Next, the producing and exporting countries need to have reasonable development strategies and policies to stabilize the markets. Alternatively, they can invest in research and development of efficient farm management services and systems. Besides that, the government should consistently implement regulations and policies to create a compelling and fair working environment that focuses on protecting the environment.

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Thesis Public Defense | VNP24 Đặng Cửu Trinh
2020-11-18 00:00
The impact of Decree 100 on the drinking and drunk-driving behavior in Ho Chi Minh City
Student: Đặng Cửu Trinh, VNP 24
Supervisor: Dr. Võ Tất Thắng
Abstract:
The study aims to investigate the impact of the new BAC limits law on the frequency of drinking and drunk-driving in Ho Chi Minh City. The new level of BAC is the main content of the new decree, called shortly Decree 100. The government issued Decree 100 with an expectation that it will reduce the negative behavior after alcohol drinking, especially drunk-driving behavior. The study uses the difference-in-difference approach to estimate the primary data collected from the online survey. The study finds that Decree 100 positively impacts the monthly average number of driving after drinking. The significant magnitude of the effect varies from -0.623 to -0.642. These values imply that Decree 100 is associated with a 0.623 to 0.642 reduction in the monthly average number of drunk-driving. However, the relationship between Decree 100 and the monthly average number of drinking is not statistically significant.
Keyword: Decree 100, BAC, Drinking, Drunk-Driving, difference-in-difference.

Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Đặng Vũ Thanh
2020-11-18 00:00
Does the feedback effect from foreign investment to environmental regulation matter?
Student: Đặng Vũ Thanh, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Đức Võ
Abstract:
Foreign investment and environmental regulations are generally considered a two-way relationship. The effect of environmental regulation to foreign investment has been intensively examined in previous empirical studies. However, the reverse relationship has largely been ignored. As such, this study is conducted to examined the feedback effects from foreign investment on environmental regulations under the influence of host countries’ political institutions for 26 OECD countries during the period 1990-2015. The study makes contributions to the literature in three dimensions. First, this is one of the few studies examining the reverse relationship in the Pollution haven hypothesis. Second, we use OECD’s newly-developed environmental policy stringency index, which is believed to be a more comprehensive measure for environmental regulations than previous ones. Third, we investigate the long-run relationship between foreign investment and environmental regulation, which has largely been neglected in the literature. Empirical results from this study are consistent with the firm lobby model, indicating that foreign investment does exert negative influence on environment policies because of the lobbying effect. However, if the number of legislative units is large enough, the lobbying effect is negated and the governments are likely to impose stricter pollution tax to maximize social welfare. Analyzing the sub-samples, the effects do not translate to the upper-income countries, where FDI is found to improve environmental regulations. Results for the lower-income countries are consistent with the full sample.
Keyword: Foreign investment, Environmental regulation, Pollution haven hypothesis, Institution, OECD

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Thesis Public Defense | VNP25 Nguyễn Thế Hoàng
2020-10-16 00:00
The influence of technological innovation on labor force participation: Cross-country evidence
Student: Nguyễn Thế Hoàng, VNP 25
Supervisor: Dr. Lê Văn Chơn
Abstract:
Structural and economic changes have led to the alteration in labor force participation (LFP) across the globe. This research pays attention to the role of technological innovation on labor force participation, especially for both male (MLFP) and female (FLFP). The main objective is to investigate whether technological advancement can adjust LFP, MLFP, and FLFP. The study collects data from the World Bank during the period of 2000 – 2018, including 197 countries around the world. The research applies two different econometric approaches, static and dynamic respectively. The static approach does not take the lagged dependent variable into account, while the dynamic one considers the lagged dependent variable. Out of the three techniques, the most suitable one is Random Effect Model for the static approach. In the dynamic approach, the paper uses the System GMM technique. The usage of different techniques can help check the robustness and consistency of all research models. Besides, the study recommends that the government should advance technological innovation to encourage women to participate in the labor force.
Keywords: technological innovation, labor force participation, R&D expenditure, System GMM.
