Thesis Public Defense | VNP27 - Nguyễn Minh Thái

Interlinkages between economic growth, urbanization, energy consumption, and emissions in eight ASEAN countries

Student: Nguyễn Minh Thái, VNP-27

Supervisor: Dr. Nguyễn Quang

Abstract:

 This study analyzes the complex interlinkages between economic growth, urbanization, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in eight Southeast Asian countries from 2005 to 2020 by constructing a simultaneous equation model (SEM) to capture the mutual influences among these variables, thereby providing a more accurate view of their interdependencies. With the strong support of the 3SLS regression method, the model accounts for endogenous relationships, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of the feedback mechanisms between these critical economic and environmental factors. The results indicate that GDP growth significantly influences urbanization, while the industrial sector is the main contributor to rising energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Additionally, the analysis shows that a 1% increase in population leads to a 1.39% increase in energy consumption, while a 1% rise in urban population results in a 5.5% increase in CO2 emissions. This reflects the sensitivity of emissions to urban expansion, especially when poorly managed urbanization leads to greater pressure on energy infrastructure, exacerbating CO2 emissions and causing environmental and social problems. However, the study also highlights the
importance of promoting renewable energy as a key measure to mitigate the negative effects of urbanization and industrialization on the environment. These findings reinforce the need for sustainable energy policies and effective urban planning to ensure a balance between economic growth and environmental protection in Southeast Asian countries.

JEL Classification: Q2, E4, C33
Keywords: economic growth, urbanization, energy consumption, CO2 emissions, renewable energy, energy policies, urban planning, panel data.