Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Nguyễn Thị Kiều Nhung

Is Asia’s fertility decline linked to foreign investment? An empirical investigation?

Student: Nguyễn Thị Kiều Nhung, VNP-29

Supervisor: Dr. Đặng Đình Thắng

Abstract:

This thesis investigates the complex relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) across 40 Asian economies. As Asia undergoes a rapid demographic
metamorphosis, understanding how international capital inflows are associated with changes in reproductive behavior has become a critical concern for sustainable development and future labor stability. Using a panel-data regression framework with model selection guided by the Hausman specification test, this thesis identifies an inverse relationship between cumulative FDI stock and fertility rates across Asia. The analysis further reveals significant heterogeneity across geographic regions and countries with different levels of urbanization and initial fertility. The negative association between FDI and fertility is most pronounced in East and Southeast Asia, followed by West Asia, while being notably moderated in South and Central Asia. Furthermore, the correlational estimates are stronger among the countries with a high level of urbanization and among those with a high level of initial fertility.

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Demographic Transition, Threshold Effect, Urbanization, Asia.
JEL classifications: F21, J13, O18, R11