Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Võ Hoàng Long

Son preference, fertility choices, and labor market segmentation in Vietnam

Student: Võ Hoàng Long, VNP-29

Supervisor: Dr. Hồ Hoàng Anh

Abstract:

This study investigates the interplay between son preference, fertility choices, and labor market segmentation in Vietnam using instrumental variable probit (IV-Probit) model on Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) data from 2010 to 2020. The initial findings reveal that son preference contribute to lower fertility, influenced by and malepreferring stopping rules and potential sex selection trends during modernization. Using son preference as an instrument for fertility, we uncover that having fewer children increases the likelihood of labor force participation, particularly for women. It also shifts individuals away from agriculture and manufacturing toward the service sector. While women with fewer children exhibit increased opportunities in manufacturing compared to men, lower fertility also shifts them away from informal, unskilled employment or multi-job engagement, reflecting improved access to higher-quality job opportunities. These patterns align with the Feminization U Hypothesis and Unified Growth Theory, suggesting that Vietnam’s economic and demographic transitions significantly shape labor market outcomes. Policies should focus on reducing gender biases, stricter enforcement against prenatal sex selection to sustain fertility rate that avoid shrinking workforce and human capital stock. Solutions should be established for mitigating the trade-offs between childbearing and career advancement, particularly for GDP-dominant sectors.

Keywords: Vietnam, labor supply, labor segmentation, son preferences, fertility decline, differential stopping rules

JEL Classification: J01, J13, J22