International technology transfer and renewable energy consumption in 16 Asia-Pacific economies : a moderated dynamic panel analysis

Student: Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Giàu, VNP-31

Supervisor: Dr. Trương Đăng Thụy

Abstract:

As global energy consumption and emission trends shift significantly toward Asia, economies in the region face a major challenge: a technological deficit in the renewable energy sector. This study examines how international technology transfer (ITT)—proxied by patent applications filed by foreign entities—influences the share of renewable energy. The analysis utilizes a panel dataset covering 16 Asia-Pacific economies from 2000 to 2023, employing both static and dynamic two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimation models. The empirical results yield two key findings. First, the share of renewable energy exhibits strong inertia and structural persistence over time, though this persistence diminishes when country-specific trends are accounted for. Notably, once structural inertia is controlled for in the dynamic model, foreign sourced patents (whether in the current or lagged periods) show no statistically significant impact—a contrast to the positive effects observed in the static model. This suggests that static
estimates may overstate short-term effects by failing to account for infrastructural inertia. Second, in the baseline dynamic model, the relationship between foreign patents and the share of renewable energy strengthens with the level of economic development, reaching statistical significance only among high-income economies. However, this moderating role of income disappears when controlling for country-specific trends or applying a first-difference approach, highlighting a high sensitivity to model specification. Based on these findings, the study underscores the importance of accounting for structural inertia and conducting sensitivity analyses. Rather than drawing rigid conclusions regarding causality or offering prescriptive policy recommendations, the study provides a cautious analytical framework: the transition of the energy structure necessitates a longterm roadmap due to significant infrastructural inertia. Furthermore, it proposes the regulatory role of income as a hypothesis that warrants further investigation in future research.

Keywords: International Technology Transfer, Renewable Energy, Path-dependency, Moderated Dynamic Panel, Absorptive Capacity, Asian Economies