Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Vũ Đức Ngọc Thiện

Climate change, emissions trading systems, and women’s political empowerment: Evidence from a cross-country analysis

Student: Vũ Đức Ngọc Thiện, VNP-30

Supervisor: Assoc.Prof.Dr. Phạm Khánh Nam

Abstract:

 Market-based environmental policy instruments have gained increasing prominence in global climate change mitigation efforts, yet their effectiveness may depend on broader institutional and social conditions. This study examines the environmental impacts of emissions trading systems (ETS) and the role of women’s political empowerment in shaping their effectiveness. Using a panel of 84 countries over the period 2000 – 2023, the analysis combines two-way fixed effects and a staggered difference-in-differences framework to evaluate the direct and interactive effects of ETS adoption and women’s political empowerment on national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The empirical results indicate that ETS adoption is associated with statistically significant reductions in per capita GHG emissions, supporting the effectiveness of market-based instruments in climate mitigation. In addition, higher levels of women’s political empowerment are correlated with lower emissions, measured in carbon dioxide equivalent terms. Robustness checks and diagnostic tests confirm the stability of these findings. Importantly, the study finds that women’s political empowerment moderates the effectiveness of ETS, with stronger emission-reducing effects observed in countries where women’s political influence is relatively high. Mechanism analyses suggest that this moderating role operates partly through better environmental governance capacity and higher female labor force participation, both of which are associated with improved environmental
outcomes. Furthermore, disaggregated analyses by gas type reveal that the effects of ETS and women’s empowerment are most pronounced for carbon dioxide emissions, while impacts on methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases are more limited. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of integrating market-based environmental policies with inclusive political institutions, suggesting that gender-inclusive governance may enhance the effectiveness of climate policy instruments.