Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Vương Thị Khuyên

Conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa: The impact of Chinese aid as external intervention

Student: Vương Thị Khuyên, VNP-30

Supervisor: Assoc.Prof.Dr. Ellisaios Papyrakis & Dr. Nguyễn Quang

Abstract:

This study examines the impact of Chinese aid on conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa during the period 2001-2021. Chinese aid is different from traditional aid, as its largely aims to provide concessional financial assistance for infrastructure projects. Over the past decades, these large-scale financial flows are argued to create economic and social imbalances in recipient countries, which in turn fuels local conflict. The findings reveal Chinese aid is associated with higher levels of conflict at the district level in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly increased repression against local civilians. Using a spatial analysis model, the research finds that state conflict against armed groups has a decentralisation effect exclusively in areas inhabited by politically powerless ethnic groups. It then proposes two possible mechanisms, based on the literature on external intervention and conflict: either the influence of these groups in their homelands has been weakening, or a deterrence effect arising from China’s presence in the areas.

JEL classification: D74, F35, F51, O55, P33, P34, Q34

Keywords: Conflict, Chinese Aid, Sub-Saharan Africa, Civil Conflict, Foreign Aid