Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Đoàn Trọng Nhân

The influence of economic policy uncertainty on innovation: the moderating role of education

Student: Đoàn Trọng Nhân, VNP-29

Supervisor: Dr. Vũ Thị Hồng Nhung

Abstract:

Our investigation purposes to empirically theories and explore the influence of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on countries’ innovation performance as well as the contingency conditions of this relationship. The study employs longitudinal data from World bank secondary database to examine for a straight impression of EPU on nations’ innovation outcomes. In addition, we hypothesise the moderating effects of national education. In the contrary to previous studies, which believe innovation outputs is worse as the presence of EPU, our findings shows an inverted-U relationship between EPU and innovation outcomes. In fact, EPU encourages national innovation at a moderate level of EPU and reduce innovation performance as it exceeds the EPU turning point. Furthermore, we found that education triggers the invertedU relationship flatter, suggesting the mechanisms by which educational capacity protects and sustains innovation. This study contributes to the growing body of literature investigating the influence economic policy uncertainty on innovation in scope of country level. This research offers new insights into how uncertainty may drive innovation and expands our understanding of education’s role as a moderating factor.

Keywords: Economic policy uncertainty, innovation outputs, education, inverted U-shape relationship, Asia
JEL classification: D80, G18, O39