Thesis Public Defense | VNP29 - Dương Thiện Trang Thanh

Material flow analysis of fossil fuel in ASEAN during the period 1980-2024

Student: Dương Thiện Trang Thanh, VNP-29

Supervisor: Assoc.Prof.Dr. Phạm Khánh Nam

Abstract:

Ten ASEAN countries are setting targets of net-zero or carbon neutrality by 2050, but their strong commitments are not apparent in COP28. Hence, my research aims to investigate material (fossil fuel) evolution and efficiency, which are critical determinants for sustainable economic development through material flow analysis (MFA) with a set of key indicators such as domestic extraction, raw material equivalent of imports and exports, and material footprint. Further, deploying panel data with the period of 1980 – 2024 and fixed effect panel regression application, I would like to examine relationship between economic growth and environmental quality based on idea of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The EKC is a traditional approach that captures a relationship between income growth and environmental quality mainly focusing measures of pollutions. In my scope of research, I validate EKC using material footprint that is alternative measure of environmental degradation. My study would contribute to growing literature of ASEAN circular economy (CE) that is considered as a novel concept in this region.  Further, importance of MFA accounting framework is also highlighted in this research as a supportive data-based tool to track CE progress.

My results confirm a presence of inverted U-shaped between GDP per capita and raw material consumption per capita at total level. However, when specifically analyzing by income group, the analysis presents a mixture result of EKC. While inverted U-shaped between economic growth and material footprint exists in high income countries (Singapore, Brunei Darussalam) and upper-middle income nations (Thailand, Malaysia), lower-middle income countries do not show significant progress of dematerialization, exhibiting positive linear relationship between GDP and material footprint in these nations. Coupling between economic development and footprint of fossil fuel can reflect current ASEAN energy transition journey that encounters multiple overlapping constraints. While AMS are attempting to accelerate the transition towards renewable energy to reduce emission and mitigate impact of climate change, the usage of fossil fuel, especially coal, oil, and natural gas are still unavoidable for economic and industrial development. The EKC findings would emphasize that conflicting priorities to enable economic growth and improvement of environmental quality is still ASEAN’s dilemma.

Keywords: material flow analysis, material footprint, EKC hypothesis, circular economy, dematerialization, fossil fuel