Thesis Public Defense | VNP30 - Ngô Tấn Hưng

Revisit the “Resource Curse” in Vietnam

Student: Ngô Tấn Hưng, VNP-30

Supervisor: Dr. John Cruzatti Constantine & Dr. Hồ Hoàng-Anh

Abstract:

This study examines the causal impact of mineral deposit discoveries on local economic development in Vietnam during the period 1992-2000. Using district-level nighttime light data as a proxy for economic activity, the study applies a multi-period difference-in-differences framework following Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) to identify the causal effect of mineral discoveries on local economies. This approach allows for heterogeneous treatment effects across cohorts and over time, while mitigating bias arising from invalid comparisons inherent in conventional two-way fixed effects models. The results show that districts with mineral discoveries differ substantially in geographic and natural conditions from those without discoveries. When these factors are not controlled for, naïve estimates suggest the presence of a local “resource curse”. However, after conditioning on covariates and allowing treatment effects to vary over time, the analysis finds no evidence of a uniform average effect of mineral discoveries on short-run local economic growth. Instead, the estimated effects are heterogeneous. Positive impacts are observed mainly in districts that experienced early discoveries, whereas districts with later discoveries show no statistically significant effects. Overall, the study provides empirical evidence that natural resource discoveries do not inevitably lead to either a resource curse or an economic boom at the local level. The findings underscore the central role of spatial heterogeneity and geographic context in assessing the economic consequences of natural resource discoveries.

JEL Classification: Q32, Q33
Keywords: resources curse, nighttime light, subnation, Vietnam, stagged DID